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Watching The Watchers – The Best NBA Mock Drafts

24 Jun

NBA Draft 2011 didn’t disappoint in terms of providing entertainment with interesting decisions, picks and trades but it’s over so it’s time for some conclusions… no, I don’t mean judging teams or drafted players with special grading scales [where almost all teams were above average!] but to answer a question which doesn’t require waiting few years: Who Had The Best and Worst 2011 Mock Drafts on the Internet?
(You can also check expanded version for mock drafts in 2012 and 2013!)

Obviously, I couldn’t cover every mock available on the web but here’s what I did:
1) 12 hours before NBA Draft I saved on my hard drive pages from as many latest 1st round mocks as possible. Mostly from widely known authors/sources but I also added some random googled ones.
For more fun and information I also added older versions.
2) I graded every mock by an average absolute difference between the mocked and actual picks.
For example Derrick Williams was drafted at #2 so if you had him at #1 you would get a score of “1” but if you had him at #5 you would get a score of “3”. Got it? If a player went undrafted I counted that as a “30” because of the entire second round. I did the aforementioned thing for every pick in every mock and calculate an average for the entire first round so the lower the number the more accurate mock was.

BTW, if you are interested what’s the score for YOUR mock draft let me know in the comments.
Although there better be some kind of valid information about a date.
It won’t be fun to judge mock which has been written after real draft ;-)

OK, let the mock draft challenge begin! Here are the results… (Number before name means “earlier version”):

Author Link to Source Only Lottery Total Diff # of nailed picks # of picks with 10+ difference Average Error for 1st Round
David Kay Downloaded from 1,786 100 7 1 3,33
nbadraft.net Downloaded from 2,071 104 6 2 3,47
nba-draft.com Downloaded from 2,857 126 7 3 4,20
Sam Amick Downloaded from 1,643 131 8 5 4,37
6Chad Ford Downloaded from 3,571 136 3 3 4,53
2Sam Amick Downloaded from 3,000 138 4 3 4,60
DraftExpress Downloaded from 2,429 146 5 5 4,87
1DraftExpress Downloaded from 3,714 151 5 5 5,03
mynbadraft.com Downloaded from 2,786 153 5 4 5,10
Tyler Downloaded from 3,929 153 7 3 5,10
Steve Kyler Downloaded from 3,286 154 5 4 5,13
Jonathan Carrano Downloaded from 2,714 154 4 5 5,13
InsideHoops.com Downloaded from 3,643 154 4 3 5,13
Christopher Reina Downloaded from 1,929 162 5 4 5,40
Allen Moll Downloaded from 5,071 169 3 4 5,63
3Chad Ford Downloaded from 3,643 171 3 5 5,70
Kristofer Habbas Downloaded from 2,714 172 4 5 5,73
Alex Raskin Downloaded from 3,000 173 2 7 5,77
Joel Brigham Downloaded from 3,000 176 3 6 5,87
“Ben Golliver” Downloaded from 2,714 179 5 8 5,97
Neal Leitereg Downloaded from 2,857 181 7 5 6,03
2Alex Raskin Downloaded from 2,500 183 3 7 6,10
1nbadraft.net Downloaded from 3,929 185 3 7 6,17
3Christopher Reina Downloaded from 2,857 185 4 6 6,17
2Yannis Koutroupis Downloaded from 3,214 186 5 7 6,20
Charlie Zegers Downloaded from 3,786 188 4 7 6,27
Luke Byrnes Downloaded from 3,857 189 1 5 6,30
Scott Howard-Cooper Downloaded from 2,786 191 5 8 6,37
2Luke Byrnes Downloaded from 3,571 198 3 6 6,60
Sean Deveney Downloaded from 3,429 199 4 7 6,63
2Steve Kyler Downloaded from 5,429 212 2 10 7,07
Yannis Koutroupis Downloaded from 4,214 214 3 8 7,13
2Joel Brigham Downloaded from 4,286 214 2 9 7,13
“Matt Moore” Downloaded from 4,571 224 3 7 7,47

Unsurprisingly [?] professional writers were better than amateurs… although not all of them because CBSSports, Hoopsworld, InsideHoops and Sporting News struck out badly but…
for now congratulations go to David Kay from thesportsbank.net!
We could also thank nbadraft.net, Sam Amick, nba-draft.com, DraftExpress and Chad Ford for either good sources or good luck ;-)

Note that not all of earlier versions were better than latest ones!

Overall the biggest problems in the lottery were with those picks [and in that order]:
#14, #13, #9, #12, #7, #11, #8 while #1, #2 and #4 were the easiest ones.

Here’s the list of accurate guesses for each pick:
#01-#10: 33, 31, 11, 3, 2, 15, 0, 0, 2, 0,
#11-#20: 7, 1, 3, 0, 0, 5, 5, 1, 3, 6,
#21-#30: 0, 7, 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2.

 
168 Comments

Posted by on June 24, 2011 in Expanding Horizons

 

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168 responses to “Watching The Watchers – The Best NBA Mock Drafts

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