NBA 2011-12, Revisiting Predictions for Wins

27 Jun

After checking accuracy of predictions for wins in the NBA in 2010/11 and two earlier seasons I’m hungry for more and thanks to passing time I can add most recent data! Farewell 2011/12! So which writer, blogger or author had the most accurate wins predictions for that lockout-shortened season?

To answer this question I gathered last season’s predictions from most popular sites and other googled sources [btw, it’s not a closed list so if you want to add your’s predictions let me know in the comments] and compared them to actual results by Root Mean Square Deviation which is essentially average difference between each prediction and result in terms of absolute value. If you want to play with numbers or check any single entry just download NBA Predictions Accuracy 2011-12.pdf but if you are interested only in the results here they are…

Prediction Date Data from RMSE
Joe Schaller 12/22/2011 4,595
Crow 12/25/2011 4,683
Over/Under Line 12/25/2011[…] 4,773
John Hollinger 12/25/2011[…] 4,789
Coach 12/15/2011[…] 4,906
ESPN’s forecast 12/27/2011[…]/nba-winter-forecast-contributors 5,007
Pinnacle Over/Under 12/20/2011[…] 5,018
J.E. 12/24/2011 5,198
dudeimstoked 12/24/2011 5,518
DSMok1 12/25/2011 5,584
Bill Simmons Real 12/21/2011 5,607
MikeG final 12/25/2011 5,627
Bill Simmons Pin 12/21/2011 5,680
House Real 12/21/2011 5,683
House Close to Pin 12/21/2011 5,710
EvanZ final 12/25/2011 5,842
EvanZ 12/23/2011[…]/evanzs-2012-[…] 5,939
EvanZ corrected blended 12/21/2011 5,939
Darryl Howerton 12/27/2011[…] 5,964
MikeG 2nd pass 12/17/2011 6,017
EvanZ 2-yr ezPM 12/20/2011 6,019
EvanZ ezPM blended with RAPM 12/20/2011 6,126
Kurt Helin 12/15/2011[…] 6,340
Cole 12/08/2011 6,438
David Hess 12/23/2011[…] 6,560
Bryan 12/08/2011 6,637
K. M. Venne 12/08/2011 6,712
Kevin Pelton Book 12/25/2011[…] 6,790
Kevin Pelton Semi-Final Projections 12/23/2011 6,839
MikeG 1st pass 12/14/2011 6,875
Wins in previous season 7,469

A couple of notes about results in the 4th season measured:

– The list of competitors is surprisingly short, I blame it on the lockout and lack of preparation time because of the sudden start… but if the next year list is also short I’ll be concerned.

– The most undervalued teams were Spurs [by avg of 9,8 wins], Jazz [7,7], Pacers [7] and Hawks [5,3].

– The most overvalued teams were Bobcats [by avg of 14,36], Blazers [9,43], Mavs [6,45], Warriors [4,53] and Hornets [4,1].

– Previous year’s winner – John Hollinger – didn’t beat Vegas this time but was close and had another top performance which makes it 3 out of 4… so the pressure is only going up for the next year, John ;-)

APBR’s staple Crow had a spectacular set of predictions and was crowned the winner on that forum but I found even better entry so…

I’d like to congratulate Joe Schaller for the most accurate wins predictions last year!
By the way, he is aware of this accomplishment but his previous season wasn’t so accurate so we’ll see after next season whenever it was a contract year for his publisher ;-)

– It’s a 3rd strong year in a row for ESPN’s winter forecast so “yay” for the wisdom of the crowd.

– Most early submissions had a poor final score… so yes, the more you know about the teams, the easier it is to predict their strength. The more you know… ;-)

Finally, I’m glad that a quest for measuring accuracy of predictions is expanding – good luck pundittracker!

P.S. On my queue for next couple of days? Accuracy of 2012 Mock Drafts!


Posted by on June 27, 2012 in Expanding Horizons


Tags: , , , , ,

23 responses to “NBA 2011-12, Revisiting Predictions for Wins

  1. WfvO

    June 2, 2018 at 18:17


  2. Ehgg

    June 6, 2018 at 01:16


  3. YYOJ

    August 25, 2018 at 01:51



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s