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Effects of Draft Lottery Results on NBA History Part2

21 Jun

NBA Draft is days away so it’s time for some topics about it…

In part 1 I focused on a difference between players who were drafted at any given spot and those who would have been drafted there had lottery played out exactly as odds suggested. In part 2 I’ll take into consideration those odds. Incidentally I’ve stumbled into a solid way of quantifying how well teams have drafted!

But first, here’s a remainder of rules which were used:
– I assumed continuity of teams so “OKC Thunder” means “Seattle SuperSonics” in earlier years,
– I included new ownership of picks via trades only when they were completed before making a pick,
– I assumed that Career Win Shares in regular season adequately describe player’s career,
– I assumed that players would be drafted at the same slot no matter which team have owned given pick.

What’s more, I changed perspective to the Last 10 Years because IMHO drafts from 1995 to 2000 had too big impact on numbers because careers of those players have lasted way longer than any other. For every season in last decade I re-created probabilities of getting every pick before draft [this is an example from 2010]:

Team Rec 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
NJ 12-70 0,25 0,215 0,177 0,358 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MIN 15-67 0,199 0,188 0,171 0,319 0,124 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SAC 25-57 0,156 0,157 0,155 0,225 0,265 0,041 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSW 26-56 0,104 0,112 0,121 0,099 0,373 0,178 0,014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAS 26-56 0,103 0,111 0,12 0 0,238 0,342 0,082 0,004 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHI 27-55 0,053 0,06 0,07 0 0 0,44 0,331 0,045 0,001 0 0 0 0 0
DET 27-55 0,053 0,06 0,07 0 0 0 0,572 0,226 0,018 0 0 0 0 0
LAC 29-53 0,023 0,027 0,032 0 0 0 0 0,725 0,184 0,009 0 0 0 0
UTH 29-53 0,022 0,026 0,031 0 0 0 0 0 0,797 0,121 0,004 0 0 0
IND 32-50 0,011 0,013 0,016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,87 0,089 0,002 0 0
NOR 37-45 0,008 0,009 0,012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,907 0,063 0,001 0
MEM 40-42 0,007 0,008 0,01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,935 0,039 0
TOR 40-42 0,006 0,007 0,009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,96 0,018
HOU 42-40 0,005 0,006 0,007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,982

Then with those numbers in hand I calculated Expected Value for every spot [in Career Win Shares] and compared it to Career Win Shares of a player who was actually drafted at given pick.

This can sound complicated but it really isn’t, so let me show you an example from 2010:

Nets had 25% chance for #1, 21.5% for #2, 17.7% for #3 and 35.8% for #4. Those picks turned out to be John Wall [with 2,2 Career Win Shares to Date], Evan Turner [2,3], Derrick Favors [2,9], Wesley Johnson [1,3] so our final equation for this spot looks like this: 2,9 – [0,25 * 2,2 + 0,215 * 2,3 + 0,177 * 2,9 + 0,358 * 1,3] = 0,8768 which means that based on their chances of acquiring certain players before draft Nets have gained almost 1 Win Share with their decision to draft Favors.

And when you do the same for all picks, all teams and sum up results you will get this table…
BTW, “Total Change” = aforementioned calculations for every team’s pick while
“Times” = Times in the lottery and “CWS” = Career Win Shares:

Team Total
Change
Times Biggest Loss Year CWS Biggest Gain Year CWS
Houston 57,27 5 Marcus Banks 2003 Yao Ming 2002 52,2
Orlando 31,87 3 Fran Vasquez 2005 -12,1 Dwight Howard 2004 43,2
Oklahoma City 27,90 7 Vladimir Radmanovic 2001 -2,4 Kevin Durant 2007 24,9
New Orleans 27,53 4 Hilton Armstrong 2006 -0,7 Chris Paul 2005 28,8
Boston 22,72 3 Jeff Green 2007 -5,5 Brandon Roy 2006 23,9
Memphis 20,68 6 Mike Conley 2007 -5,4 Drew Gooden 2002 13,2
Portland 19,89 5 Tyrus Thomas 2006 -2,8 Deron Williams 2005 24,8
Miami 16,09 3 Michael Beasley 2008 -6,7 Dwyane Wade 2003 20,2
Phoenix 14,65 3 Earl Clark 2009 -0,1 Amare Stoudemire 2002 7,4
Cleveland 13,63 5 Dajuan Wagner 2002 -23,8 LeBron James 2003 51,2
Golden State 7,54 9 Ike Diogu 2005 -4,3 Jason Richardson 2001 9,5
Philadelphia 5,27 4 Evan Turner 2010 -0,7 Andre Iguodala 2004 5,9
New York 1,54 5 Mike Sweetney 2003 -3,0 Nene Hilario 2002 8,1
L.A. Lakers 0,98 1 Andrew Bynum 2005 1,0
Atlanta -0,79 6 Marvin Williams 2005 -22,2 Pau Gasol 2001 41,5
Sacramento -2,16 4 Spencer Hawes 2007 -1,0 Jason Thompson 2008 0,0
Indiana -2,21 4 Acie Law 2007 -1,8 Paul George 2010 0,2
Milwaukee -19,12 6 Yi Jianlian 2007 -17,1 Andrew Bogut 2005 10,4
L.A. Clippers -20,38 9 Chris Kaman 2003 -30,8 Tyson Chandler 2001 38,3
Utah -20,40 4 Martell Webster 2005 -19,7 Ronnie Brewer 2006 0,2
Toronto -20,53 6 Rafael Araujo 2004 -15,4 Chris Bosh 2003 4,6
Chicago -22,03 7 Jay Williams 2002 -33,2 LaMarcus Aldridge 2006 23,9
Charlotte -26,56 5 Adam Morrison 2006 -15,9 D.J. Augustin 2008 9,8
Minnesota -28,28 6 Randy Foye 2006 -13,5 Rashad McCants 2005 -0,6
Denver -32,38 3 Nikoloz Tskitishvili 2002 -18,3 Kedrick Brown 2001 -2,9
New Jersey -32,48 4 Eddie Griffin 2001 -34,4 Brook Lopez 2008 1,6
Detroit -35,56 3 Darko Milicic 2003 -27,3 Greg Monroe 2010 2,2
Washington -47,22 6 Kwame Brown 2001 -29,1 John Wall 2010 0,3

I didn’t plan it but…
those lists could work as The Best and the Worst Pick for each team in the Last 10 Years, right?
Although we have to remember that most of careers are still going on so this list will change over time there are few IMHO interesting notes here:

  • Mavs and Spurs weren’t in the lottery in the last 10 years,
  • Wolves and Nuggets drafted so badly that their BEST move was a loss
    [remember that Carmelo was worse than Bosh and Wade],
  • Nets, Pistons and Wizards only recently have came up with a positive result,
  • Rockets, Hornets and Thunder not only drafted a star but also avoided huge losses.

As a bonus here’s a summary for effects of moving up and down in the draft thanks to lottery results…

Move Total
Change
Times Biggest Loss Year CWS Biggest Gain Year CWS
8 9,20 1 Derrick Rose 2008 9,2
6 38,27 2 Greg Oden 2007 -0,8 Tyson Chandler 2001 38,3
5 10,36 1 -0,8 Andrew Bogut 2005 10,4
4 14,41 6 Darko Milicic 2003 -27,3 Yao Ming 2002 52,2
3 24,89 1 Kevin Durant 2007 24,9
2 41,67 4 Kwame Brown 2001 -29,1 Pau Gasol 2001 41,5
1 16,92 4 Shaun Livingston 2004 -30,5 Brandon Roy 2006 23,9
0 -30,60 80 Jay Williams 2002 -33,2 LeBron James 2003 51,2
-1 -124,48 19 Eddie Griffin 1999 -34,4 Dwyane Wade 2003 20,2
-2 7,48 10 Martell Webster 2005 -19,7 Chris Paul 2005 28,8
-3 -42,14 7 Eddy Curry 2001 -20,3 Jason Richardson 2001 9,5
-4 -7,68 1 Jonny Flynn 2009 -7,7

OK, it is not an exciting discovery that it was better to move up than to move down…
but once in a while somebody will take Marvin Williams over Chris Paul ;-)
BTW, staying in the same spot could be considered a slight loss…

P.S. Sorry for the delay but it was a tough cookie to make…

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3 Comments

Posted by on June 21, 2011 in Scrutiny

 

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3 responses to “Effects of Draft Lottery Results on NBA History Part2

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