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Effects of Draft Lottery Results on NBA History Part1

31 May

In this post about draft lottery I focused on luck simply in terms of moving up or down. But as you know that’s not the end of story so as I promised [although it took me waaaaay longer than I’ve expected… because I stumbled into more ideas] I’ll look at it from a different point of view: players behind those picks.

The rules and source of data are the same as in previous post and I added two new ones:
– I assumed that Career Win Shares in regular season adequately describe player’s career,
– I assumed that players would be drafted at the same slot no matter which team have owned given pick.
I know both of those aren’t 100% true but that’s the best I can do with easily available data.
If you know how to improve it, let me know but now let’s start with…
Straightforward Swaps Method
The premise here is very simple: Career Win Shares of a player who was drafted at given spot minus Career Win Shares of a player who would be drafted if lottery played out exactly as odds suggested.

To explain, let me give you an easy and recent example.
Last year Wizards, given their odds, should have drafted at #5 [which turned out to be DeMarcus Cousins with Career Win Shares = 1,1] but they won the lottery and drafted first [which turned out to be John Wall who to date collected 2,2 Win Shares]. So by moving up in the lottery Wizards gained 1,1 Win Shares. Simple right?

So by that method which team have gained the most in the last 17 drafts because of lottery results?

Team Career Win Shares changed to
date because of lottery results
How many times
in the lottery
Minnesota +104,1 10
Oklahoma City +96,6 9
Dallas +90,3 6
Houston +67,5 6
San Antonio +51,9 1
New Orleans +51,2 6
Orlando +42,2 8
Denver +36,2 6
Chicago +32,6 10
Portland +27,2 5
Phoenix +22,8 4
Memphis +7 11
Atlanta +6,1 7
Indiana 0 5
L.A. Lakers 0 2
Miami -3,9 4
Sacramento -4,6 8
New York -9 5
Charlotte -9,4 5
Washington -12 9
New Jersey -22,8 8
Toronto -37,1 11
Detroit -42,8 6
Milwaukee -43,9 11
Philadelphia -45,4 9
Boston -47,1 8
Cleveland -54,9 10
Utah -64,6 4
L.A. Clippers -92 15
Golden State -146,2 14

If you read this post you should be very surprised: Wolves were the most unlucky team and yet they gained the most Career Win Shares! How is it possible? In 1995 they had third best odds at #1 but the moved down two spots… and drafted Kevin Garnett instead of Jerry Stackhouse! How ironic is that?
At #3 they probably would play it safe but with #5 they took a gamble and it paid off in a big way.

With that information I was interested what was the biggest gain [in Career Win Shares] for every team:

Team Who should have been drafted
given team’s odds
Who actually was drafted Difference
Minnesota Jerry Stackhouse at #3 with 51,7 Kevin Garnett at #5 with 174,7 123
Dallas Glenn Robinson at #1 with 39,8 Jason Kidd at #2 with 130,1 90,3
Houston Nikoloz Tskitishvili at #5 with -1,6 Yao Ming at #1 with 65,9 67,5
Oklahoma City Alek Radojevic at #12 with -0,4 Corey Maggette at #13 with 61,4 61,8
San Antonio Chauncey Billups at #3 with 118,1 Tim Duncan at #1 with 170 51,9
New Orleans Marvin Williams at #2 with 26,7 Chris Paul at #4 with 76,4 49,7
Denver Darko Milicic at #2 with 7,2 Carmelo Anthony at #3 with 56,6 49,4
Memphis Eddy Curry at #4 with 21,9 Shane Battier at #6 with 65,6 43,7
Atlanta Jason Richardson at #5 with 54,6 Pau Gasol at #3 with 98 43,4
Orlando Darius Miles at #3 with 9,5 Mike Miller at #5 with 51,7 42,2
L.A. Clippers Desagana Diop at #8 with 13,1 Tyson Chandler at #2 with 54,9 41,8
Washington Antonio McDyess at #2 with 69,8 Rasheed Wallace at #4 with 104,5 34,7
Chicago Baron Davis at #3 with 62,9 Elton Brand at #1 with 95,7 32,8
New Jersey Chris Mihm at #7 with 13,3 Kenyon Martin at #1 with 44,5 31,2
Boston Randy Foye at #7 with 10,3 Brandon Roy at #6 with 37,5 27,2
Cleveland Richard Hamilton at #7 with 61,1 Andre Miller at #8 with 87,1 26
Portland Raymond Felton at #5 with 24,3 Deron Williams at #3 with 47,3 23
Phoenix Andre Miller at #8 with 87,1 Shawn Marion at #9 with 109,9 22,8
Golden State Antawn Jamison at #4 with 80,3 Vince Carter at #5 with 102,5 22,2
Milwaukee Martell Webster at #6 with 11,8 Andrew Bogut at #1 with 29,8 18
Toronto Carmelo Anthony at #3 with 56,6 Chris Bosh at #4 with 72,2 15,6
Charlotte Joe Alexander at #8 with 0,5 D.J. Augustin at #9 with 14,1 13,6
Miami Chris Bosh at #4 with 72,2 Dwyane Wade at #5 with 82,6 10,4
Philadelphia Tony Battie at #5 with 35,9 Keith Van Horn at #2 with 41,7 5,8
Indiana 5 times didn’t change position because of lottery
L.A. Lakers 2 times didn’t change position because of lottery
Sacramento 6 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 2 times moved and drafted worse player
New York 4 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 1 time moved and drafted worse player
Detroit 4 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 2 time moved but drafted worse player
Utah 3 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 1 time moved down and traded pick

My jaw hit the desk after that table. Seriously!
7 of 10 biggest gains occurred after team moved down in the lottery!
Oh, sweeeeet irony…

And now, the biggest loss [in Career Win Shares] for every team:

Team Who should have been drafted
given team’s odds
Who actually was drafted Difference
Golden State Kevin Garnett at # 5 with 174,7 Joe Smith at # 1 with 60,3 -114,4
Cleveland Jason Terry at # 10 with 86 Trajan Langdon at # 11 with 2,9 -83,1
Washington Pau Gasol at # 3 with 98 Kwame Brown at # 1 with 20,3 -77,7
Toronto Lamar Odom at # 4 with 73,9 Jonathan Bender at # 5 with 3,8 -70,1
Utah Chris Paul at # 4 with 76,4 Martell Webster at # 6 with 11,8 -64,6
L.A. Clippers Dwyane Wade at # 5 with 82,6 Chris Kaman at # 6 with 18,4 -64,2
New Jersey Shane Battier at # 6 with 65,6 Eddie Griffin at # 7 with 10,9 -54,7
Philadelphia Rasheed Wallace at # 4 with 104,5 Jerry Stackhouse at # 3 with 51,7 -52,8
Boston Tim Duncan at # 1 with 170 Chauncey Billups at # 3 with 118,1 -51,9
Atlanta Mike Miller at # 5 with 51,7 DerMarr Johnson at # 6 with 6,4 -45,3
Memphis Elton Brand at # 1 with 95,7 Steve Francis at # 2 with 54,1 -41,6
Minnesota Grant Hill at # 3 with 98,5 Donyell Marshall at # 4 with 59 -39,5
Denver Drew Gooden at # 4 with 37,4 Nikoloz Tskitishvili at # 5 with -1,6 -39
Detroit Jason Kidd at # 2 with 130,1 Grant Hill at # 3 with 98,5 -31,6
Milwaukee Al Horford at # 3 with 33,2 Yi Jianlian at # 6 with 3,1 -30,1
Charlotte Deron Williams at # 3 with 47,3 Raymond Felton at # 5 with 24,3 -23
Chicago Stromile Swift at # 2 with 21,3 Marcus Fizer at # 4 with 2,7 -18,6
Miami Derrick Rose at # 1 with 24 Michael Beasley at # 2 with 9,7 -14,3
New York Kevin Love at # 5 with 21,7 Danilo Gallinari at # 6 with 12,7 -9
Sacramento Blake Griffin at # 1 with 9,8 Tyreke Evans at # 4 with 7 -2,8
Portland Andrea Bargnani at # 1 with 13,9 Tyrus Thomas at # 4 with 13,7 -0,2
San Antonio 1 time moved up and drafted better player
Oklahoma City 5 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 4 times moved but drafted better player
Dallas 5 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 1 time moved up and drafted better player
Houston 5 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 1 time moved up and drafted better player
New Orleans 4 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 2 times moved but drafted better player
Orlando 7 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 1 time moved and drafted better player
Phoenix 3 times didn’t change position because of lottery, 1 time moved and drafted better player
Indiana 5 times didn’t change position because of lottery
L.A. Lakers 2 times didn’t change position because of lottery

So is moving down in the draft a blessing in disguise?
Or does it simply matter more who is drafting than where?

Anyway, in part 2 I’ll repeat this exercise but with a more advanced method:
based on probabilities of getting every pick before draft.

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4 Comments

Posted by on May 31, 2011 in Scrutiny

 

Tags: , , , , ,

4 responses to “Effects of Draft Lottery Results on NBA History Part1

  1. Josh G

    June 1, 2011 at 02:56

    You’re asking for trouble, picking a guy named “Joe Smith” at number one

     
  2. weather spain october

    May 3, 2013 at 03:12

    Fantastic website. Lots of useful

    information here. I am sending it to several friends ans
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