5 years of TrueHoop’s Stat Geek Smackdown

2011 NBA playoffs are in the books so it means that we know who won a championship in TrueHoop’s Stat Geek Smackdown 2011 – congratulations for Benjamin Morris! Yes, game strategy could be a useful tool.

Overall it was a very unusual and interesting year because there was All-time Best Score for one series [PHI-MIA with 6,75 where all but one participant correctly guessed winner AND number of games].
Also there were THREE series where nobody picked a winner [ATL-ORL, MEM-SA, DAL-LAL] which was more missed matchups than in previous 4 years combined!
Previously they all missed only two huge upsets: ORL-CLE in 2009 and GS-DAL in 2007.

But it was also a 5th year anniversary for this competition and I think it’s a good time for some aggregate data and comments.

Let’s start with awards aka tidbits:

All-time Best Rookie Participant Award goes to… Steve Ilardi who collected 71 points in his debut in 2008.
FYI: This year’s winner Benjamin Morris was second on that list.

All-time Worst Rookie Participant Award goes to… Henry’s Mom who collected 34 points in her debut in 2007.
FYI: Among stat experts worst debut belongs to Mike Kurylo with 37 points in 2007.

All-time Best Single-Season Score Award goes to… David Berri for 75 points in 2009. And because of that…

All-time Biggest Fall Award goes to… David Berri who collected 57 points in 2010 for a loss of 18 points.

All-time Biggest Improvement Award goes to… Mike Kurylo who followed 37 points with 72 in 2008.

Speaking of improvements…
there seems to be “sophomore surge” among the group! On average in second year participants improve by 5,9 points… while third and four year experience doesn’t make any difference [0,57 and 0,66 respectively].

The Most Predictable Year Award goes to… 2009 with an average score of 62,875 points.

The Most Unpredictable Year Award goes to… 2007 with an average score of 53,14 points.

Top6 Most Predictable Teams and Top6 Most Unpredictable Teams were: