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3-Year Data of Team’s Point Differential by Quarters

12 Jul

Every discussion about Points Counting More in 4th Quarters in my opinion should at least mention data “how teams actually played in every quarters”. Right now you can find it on 82games.com but it’s only for one season and kind of old one [2007-2008]. So I’ve digged into play-by-play data from ESPN to present supplementary breakdown of Every Team’s Point Margin by Quarters in the Last 3 Seasons [including Playoffs!].

Because data itself is long enough I’ll leave curiosities for tomorrow’s post but let’s start with…
League-Wide Correlation Coefficient between Each Quarter Differential and Final Total Differential
[with a total of 2460 data points for every season and 498 data points for playoffs in the last 3 years].

Season 1Q Diff vs Total Diff 2Q Diff vs Total Diff 3Q Diff vs Total Diff 4Q Diff vs Total Diff 1OT Diff vs Total Diff 2OT Diff vs Total Diff 3OT Diff vs Total Diff
2010/11 0,448 0,447 0,477 0,379 0,927 0,976 1
2009/10 0,440 0,453 0,507 0,335 0,878 0,968 1
2008/09 0,511 0,392 0,475 0,378 0,895 0,858 1
Playoffs 0,533 0,493 0,493 0,425 0,887 0,286 1

IMHO it tells us simply that the results in 1st and 3rd quarters are most indicative of final score [probably because that’s when starters play most often]. Also blowouts really affect overall 4th quarters’ importance…

Interestingly, in the last 3 playoffs games with two overtimes happened less often than those with three overtimes.

EDIT: Thanks to a tip from sportskeptic I had an “eureka!” moment that I’ve missed one interesting table… League-Wide Correlation Coefficient between Point Margin After Each Quarter and Final Margin.

Season Total Margin after 1Q vs Final Game Margin Total Margin after 2Q vs Final Game Margin Total Margin after 3Q vs Final Game Margin Total Margin after 4Q vs Final Game Margin Total Margin after 1OT vs Final Game Margin Total Margin after 2OT vs Final Game Margin Total Margin after 3OT vs Final Game Margin
2010-11 0,448 0,659 0,836 0,995 0,999 1,000 1,000
Difference 0,448 0,212 0,176 0,159 0,004 0,001 0,000
2009-10 0,440 0,645 0,846 0,995 0,999 1,000 1,000
Difference 0,440 0,205 0,202 0,148 0,004 0,001 0,000
2008-09 0,511 0,676 0,837 0,995 0,999 1,000 1,000
Difference 0,511 0,164 0,161 0,158 0,004 0,001 0,000
Playoffs 0,533 0,748 0,861 0,995 0,999 0,999 1,000
Difference 0,533 0,216 0,113 0,134 0,004 0,000 0,001

So if you want to point out importance of one quarter… shouldn’t you start with the first one?

For those interested in detailed information about each team…
Here’s Full Data for Every Team’s Point Margin by Quarters in the Last 3 Seasons.

Team in
2010/11
1st Quarter
Differential
2nd Quarter
Differential
3rd Quarter
Differential
4th Quarter
Differential
1OT Diff 2OT Diff 3OT Diff Total
Differential
MIA 185 172 135 113 7 0 0 612
CHI 128 111 172 187 -6 8 0 600
LAL 227 151 103 -3 21 0 2 501
SA 151 99 138 72 8 0 0 468
ORL 191 91 63 102 1 0 0 448
BOS 157 45 184 41 13 0 0 440
DEN 117 99 107 68 -1 0 0 390
DAL 12 192 17 119 7 0 0 347
OKC 93 32 97 71 8 7 3 311
MEM 46 -95 166 85 -5 -5 0 192
HOU 120 40 82 -40 -23 0 0 179
POR 91 66 -19 -5 -8 0 0 125
PHI 55 47 13 22 -14 0 0 123
NO -24 70 50 -31 8 0 0 73
NY -64 111 39 -31 0 9 0 64
ATL -26 19 62 -120 -2 0 0 -67
MIL -32 -23 -49 32 3 0 0 -69
PHX 12 -72 -8 -10 10 -3 -2 -73
IND -103 91 55 -126 -5 0 0 -88
UTA -183 -21 -67 110 9 2 0 -150
GS -239 68 -12 -9 1 0 0 -191
LAC 119 -78 -199 -88 -17 6 0 -257
DET -3 -46 -168 -89 20 -9 0 -295
CHA -115 -51 -169 2 5 0 0 -328
SAC -60 -152 -171 -21 -34 0 0 -438
NJ -173 -102 -202 -32 -1 0 -2 -512
TOR -173 -156 -43 -136 -6 0 -1 -515
MIN -110 -191 -89 -138 -16 0 0 -544
WSH -142 -273 -104 -80 7 -15 0 -607
CLE -257 -244 -183 -65 10 0 0 -739

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

Team in
2009-10
1st Quarter
Differential
2nd Quarter
Differential
3rd Quarter
Differential
4th Quarter
Differential
1OT Diff 2OT Diff 3OT Diff Total
Differential
ORL 237 105 149 106 17 0 0 614
CLE 239 91 107 81 17 0 0 535
UTA 77 124 104 125 8 0 0 438
SA 207 118 34 75 -17 0 0 417
PHX 128 123 88 64 -1 0 0 402
LAL 234 -22 147 17 2 9 0 387
ATL 32 174 154 23 -1 0 0 382
DEN 65 21 98 135 16 0 0 335
BOS 140 219 -65 0 6 0 0 300
OKC 144 61 141 -52 -8 0 0 286
POR 118 89 55 29 -13 -7 0 271
DAL 69 19 82 50 3 0 0 223
MIA 82 34 122 -72 0 21 0 187
MIL -4 49 66 18 -3 13 0 139
CHA 0 112 -13 17 2 2 0 120
HOU -14 13 22 -65 8 0 6 -30
MEM 113 -44 -42 -125 -13 -13 0 -124
CHI -38 -47 -30 -21 11 -9 0 -134
TOR -22 63 -142 -37 -8 0 0 -146
NO -152 -152 77 22 3 0 0 -202
IND -256 89 -90 19 -9 0 0 -247
GS -191 2 -208 112 -10 0 0 -295
NY -177 -155 -43 81 -17 -2 0 -313
PHI -49 -55 -103 -115 2 0 0 -320
SAC -148 -43 -77 -74 -1 -15 0 -358
WSH -40 -243 -4 -85 -18 -2 0 -392
DET -111 -188 -45 -89 14 0 0 -419
LAC -191 -22 -137 -176 5 0 0 -521
NJ -233 -190 -244 -84 0 3 0 -748
MIN -259 -345 -203 21 5 0 -6 -787

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

Team in
2008/09
1st Quarter
Differential
2nd Quarter
Differential
3rd Quarter
Differential
4th Quarter
Differential
1OT Diff 2OT Diff 3OT Diff Total
Differential
CLE 358 161 48 167 -2 0 0 732
LAL 168 104 257 101 5 -7 0 628
BOS 211 147 202 43 11 2 0 616
ORL 257 122 56 107 7 0 0 549
POR 29 57 167 207 -14 -8 0 438
HOU 129 132 111 -52 -2 10 0 328
SA 145 -23 109 56 7 14 0 308
DEN 100 131 69 -36 16 0 0 280
UTA 49 83 -5 95 5 1 -11 217
DAL 134 -5 47 -20 13 -7 0 162
PHX 84 -86 49 120 -9 0 0 158
ATL -120 40 35 176 -2 0 0 129
NO 88 -138 105 77 -5 0 0 127
MIA -144 81 120 -56 6 3 11 21
PHI 136 -132 -13 0 15 0 0 6
CHI -115 24 -43 134 -20 -3 0 -23
DET 23 -35 33 -44 -6 -11 0 -40
MIL 15 -73 51 -85 3 0 0 -89
IND 63 55 -142 -49 -10 -8 0 -91
CHA -9 -11 -75 -27 13 5 0 -104
NJ -93 -59 -154 90 16 0 0 -200
NY -65 -79 48 -109 -9 0 0 -214
TOR 32 -133 -88 -39 -3 0 0 -231
GS -127 2 -116 -59 -5 0 -2 -307
MIN -189 3 -143 -78 8 -4 0 -403
MEM -233 68 -123 -130 -27 -3 0 -448
OKC -208 -60 -67 -178 13 0 0 -500
WSH -229 -69 -171 -135 -8 0 0 -612
SAC -205 -212 -199 -95 -9 0 2 -718
LAC -284 -95 -168 -181 -7 16 0 -719

And finally here’s Data for Last 3 Playoffs:

Team in
Playoffs
1st Quarter
Differential
2nd Quarter
Differential
3rd Quarter
Differential
4th Quarter
Differential
1OT Diff 2OT Diff 3OT Diff Total
Differential
LAL 74 102 107 -55 13 0 0 241
ORL 8 42 35 98 -7 0 0 176
CLE 73 31 -1 32 -2 0 0 133
DAL -33 38 84 13 7 0 0 109
DEN 40 -24 44 47 0 0 0 107
PHX -15 62 5 22 0 0 0 74
BOS 17 -16 130 -46 -12 -3 -1 69
MIA -10 31 -30 23 16 0 0 30
OKC -44 58 -5 18 -15 0 10 22
CHI 18 -33 15 -4 -8 3 1 -8
MEM 16 -41 9 16 1 0 -10 -9
HOU 13 18 -26 -24 0 0 0 -19
MIL -8 -17 -4 3 0 0 0 -26
NY -16 4 -23 1 0 0 0 -34
CHA -15 -5 -13 -4 0 0 0 -37
IND -6 21 -16 -36 0 0 0 -37
DET -13 -29 -11 -9 0 0 0 -62
UTA -8 -46 -13 -1 0 0 0 -68
PHI 16 -61 -46 8 0 0 0 -83
SA 18 -29 -61 -18 7 0 0 -83
POR -36 -83 -44 38 0 0 0 -125
NO -28 -19 -58 -59 0 0 0 -164
ATL -61 -4 -78 -63 0 0 0 -206

OK, we have to mention at least one curiosity here…
Two-time NBA champions Los Angeles Lakers…. had their worst point margin in 4th quarters! ;-)

EDIT: Later I found average quarter margins on teamrankings.com but fortunately for the sake of this post their data is differently presented and less accurate [only one digit after decimal point for such small numbers?].

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4 Comments

Posted by on July 12, 2011 in Fringe Stats

 

Tags: , , , , ,

4 responses to “3-Year Data of Team’s Point Differential by Quarters

  1. Walker Hanzely

    August 6, 2011 at 18:28

    Enjoyed looking through this, very good stuff, thankyou .

     

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