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Why Almost Every NBA Team had a Good Draft?

27 Jun

From accuracy of mock drafts I’ll jump right into another draft-related topic which IMHO should be done every year just as a reminder: How is it Possible that Almost Every Team’s Draft Grades as Above-Average?!

Seriously, check out this mostly random list:

Link to a 2011 Draft Grades around the Web Teams graded
below average
Inc.
sam_amick/06/24/draft.grades/index.html 0! 1
http://insider.espn.go.com[…]columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftGrades-110624 0! 1
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/745189-2011-nba-draft-grades 0! 3
http://www.nbadraft.net/2011-nba-draft-grades 1 1
ball_dont_lie/post/Ball-Don-t-Lie-s-2011-NBA-draft-grades 4 0
http://basketball.realgm.com/article/214377/Grading_The_Draft_2011_Edition 4 0
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/15260158 8 0

What’s wrong with this picture?
Historically we know that most of 1st round picks won’t pan out… and what’s even more puzzling this was supposed to be a weak draft which should produce more than usual number of bad performers!

And it’s not like that’s a new problem, here’s a list for last year’s draft:

Link to a 2010 Draft Grades around the Web Teams graded
below average
Inc.
chris_mannix/06/24/draft.grades/index.html 0! 4
http://www.nbadraft.net/2010-nba-draft-grades 1 1
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/2010-nba-draft-grades-for-every-team 2 4
ball_dont_lie/post/Grading-the-NBA-draft?urn=nba-251378 5 0

So could someone explain to me what’s the point of those very top heavy grading scales?
Pretty please?

Does generous grading generate more traffic? If so then why?

Is it not fun to read that your team has screwed up? Well, most of them did it so you can at least prepare for it.

Is it only a comparison to author’s expectations? Then why those expectations are so unrealistically high?

Is it hard to predict future of those players? Well, then what’s the point of those grades again?

Look, I understand that draft is in the books and writers have to write something about it, but why do they have to shatter grading scale and widely known fact in the process?
Especially when it can be done without it by simply mentioning only those worth mentioning and even though I don’t agree with those grades at least there’s some nice [and more importantly realistic] balance there.

What do you think about all of it?

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10 Comments

Posted by on June 27, 2011 in Unanswered Questions

 

Tags: , , , , ,

10 responses to “Why Almost Every NBA Team had a Good Draft?

  1. Devin Dignam

    June 28, 2011 at 01:12

    I suspect that this phenomenon is simply a result of the grade inflation that permeates schooling these days (I have a B.Ed, so I have some experience with grade inflation). Grades used to be much more reasonable, but nowadays everyone gets 80% or higher. It would be nice if assessors stopped ignoring 50% of the scale (no one uses the 0-50 range), wouldn’t it?

     
    • wiLQ

      June 28, 2011 at 13:36

      “nowadays everyone gets 80% or higher. It would be nice if assessors stopped ignoring 50% of the scale (no one uses the 0-50 range), wouldn’t it?”
      True, true, especially that it ruins the whole purpose of grading scales.
      It tells us nothing If scores are very similar across the board.

       
  2. Anonymous

    June 28, 2011 at 11:21

    It’s relatively simple. You give grades not according to one fixed scale based on normal distribution. After every pick you (sort off) recalculate it to take into account that certain players are no longer available. Team picking #30 cannot be judged against the scale having Irving as an A+ pick, because their A+ pick is the best player is at the moment available, right?

     
    • wiLQ

      June 28, 2011 at 13:51

      “After every pick you (sort off) recalculate it to take into account that certain players are no longer available. Team picking #30 cannot be judged against the scale having Irving as an A+ pick, because their A+ pick is the best player is at the moment available, right?”
      But that would suggest that most teams make good decisions and often take best player available while history tells us something exactly opposite: there will be only a couple of solid players in the later stages of the draft and teams will be blamed for passing them for busts.

      Look, as I’ve said I’m fine with a grading scale to author’s expectations but then the question is why are they so high? Especially in a very weak draft!

       
      • Leszczur

        June 28, 2011 at 14:39

        I sneaked in as Anonymous previously. Apologies.

        “But that would suggest that most teams make good decisions and often take best player available while history tells us something exactly opposite: there will be only a couple of solid players in the later stages of the draft and teams will be blamed for passing them for busts.”

        If we only remember that grading decissions today is different to what it will be in 10 years I can agree that for the most part teams make good decissions today.
        What probably should be mentioned is that what makes a real difference is not to make good decissions for today, but at least for 3-4 years. But that remains to be seen.
        And then if you consistently are beating the odds – you end up being praised just as Spurs are for trading George Hill (more than solid contributor) for pick number 543 in a supposedly weak draft.

        “Look, as I’ve said I’m fine with a grading scale to author’s expectations but then the question is why are they so high? Especially in a very weak draft!”

        Because this scale is not universal. No one should give Cavs a C- for taking Kyrie just because A+ is reserved for players like LeBron and Kyrie projects to be much worse player. Or am I missing something?

         
        • wiLQ

          June 28, 2011 at 23:11

          “If we only remember that grading decissions today is different to what it will be in 10 years I can agree that for the most part teams make good decissions today.”
          Why? How do you view the same decision as a good and bad one?

          “Because this scale is not universal. No one should give Cavs a C- for taking Kyrie just because A+ is reserved for players like LeBron and Kyrie projects to be much worse player. Or am I missing something?”
          The whole point of grading? It should make it easier to understand which teams had a good draft and which one failed… but in current form IMHO it tells us nothing.

           
  3. Leszczur

    June 29, 2011 at 15:30

    “Why? How do you view the same decision as a good and bad one?”
    Because I view them in different time points sometimes years away from each other.
    Drafting Oden #1 or 2 would be good or great decission at the time of the draft, but today even #30 would be too high, so the decission was bad, right? Same decission, different results.

    “It should make it easier to understand which teams had a good draft and which one failed… but in current form IMHO it tells us nothing.”
    Of course it tells us nothing. I can consider somebody having a good draft under the circumstances that surround their pick – even if they picked mediocre player.
    But let’s not confuse “good decissions” with “decissions potentially altering franchises”.
    And to be frank – those grades are mainly for average fans, not statheads ;-)

     
    • wiLQ

      July 5, 2011 at 18:37

      “Because I view them in different time points sometimes years away from each other.”
      But this way aren’t you grading different things?

      “And to be frank – those grades are mainly for average fans, not statheads ;-)”
      That would mean somebody finds it useful ;-)

       

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