RSS

Long Shots, Study of Buzzer-Beaters Over 30 Feet

19 Jun

Over 60% of NBA games have at least one very long shot, usually at the end of quarters. If made, they can be spectacular so they are popular on YouTube [Top 10 Long Distance Shots of 2007, NBA Crazy Half/Full Court Shots etc] but most often they are missed badly which in my mind always brings the same question:
What are the Odds of Making Buzzer-Beaters from Long Distance?

It’s time to answer it! Originally I wanted to research it using play-by-play data from ESPN but thanks to one post on APBRmetrics I’ve found out that someone saved me some time by publishing 3 files with detailed data for all shots attempted during last 3 regular seasons and playoffs… Thanks!

But first here’s a look at The Longest Shots Attempted in the Last 3 Years [all of them missed]:

Player Date Place Qtr Distance Link to

Steve Blake 2010-12-25 Home 1 89 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Steve Blake 2008-11-24 Home 2 88 Play-by-Play on ESPN
LeBron James 2009-2-20 Away 1 87 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Dwyane Wade 2009-3-15 Away 2 87 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Rodrigue Beaubois 2011-3-16 Away 3 86 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Andre Miller 2011-1-7 Away 2 85 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Dante Cunningham 2010-11-30 Away 1 85 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Matt Barnes 2010-11-14 Home 4 85 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Andrew Bogut 2010-11-20 Home 4 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Nicolas Batum 2011-4-25 Away 1 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Martell Webster 2009-12-11 Away 1 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Marco Belinelli 2009-12-27 Home 1 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Chris Andersen 2010-2-6 Away 1 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Andrea Bargnani 2010-4-9 Away 1 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Chris Kaman 2009-12-30 Away 4 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Andrea Bargnani 2008-11-30 Away 1 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Ronny Turiaf 2009-1-7 Home 1 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Andre Miller 2009-4-14 Home 3 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Andre Miller 2008-11-12 Away 4 84 Play-by-Play on ESPN

Yes, we have found the one and only category where Steve Blake ruled in the last 3 years ;-)

But seriously speaking there are two IMHO interesting notes here: some players are listed multiple times [Coincidence? Are they showing off their range? Do they like taking them?] and less than a half of those very long shots were taken at home… which surprisingly is a league-wide trend! In the last 3 years there were more shots over 30 feet attempted on the road [1939] than at home [1757]! I have no idea why…

Anyway, it’s time to move on to the point of this post…

Distance in Feet Shots Attempted Shots Made Field Goal %
80+ 54 0 0,00
75-79 51 0 0,00
70-74 119 1 0,84
65-69 134 6 4,48
60-64 199 5 2,51
55-59 287 4 1,39
50-54 341 11 3,23
45-49 375 18 4,80
40-44 674 28 4,15
35-39 539 31 5,75
30-34 923 167 18,09

Big picture conclusions are unsurprisingly grim, all shots over 35 Feet long are basically a crap shoot with around or less than 5% chance of success… so expect misses but if you see one of makes, appreciate them and be aware how unique are they ;-)

BTW, if you are a bit like me you are wondering “who the hell made that one 70-Footer?!” and the answer is Josh Howard who did it on April 5, 2009 against Suns [Play-by-Play from ESPN]. Nice!

So just for fun here’s a look at The Longest Shots Made in the Last 3 Years:

Player Date Place Qtr Distance Link to

Josh Howard 2009-4-5 Home 2 71 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Jason Kidd 2010-10-31 Away 2 66 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Marcus Williams 2010-2-16 Home 1 66 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Mo Williams 2009-5-20 Home 2 66 Play-by-Play on ESPN
T.J. Ford 2011-4-18 Away 3 65 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Antoine Wright 2010-1-11 Away 2 65 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Charlie Villanueva 2009-2-22 Home 1 65 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Marco Belinelli 2010-11-6 Away 2 64 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Deron Williams 2011-3-18 Away 1 63 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Ty Lawson 2010-12-3 Home 3 63 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Zach Randolph 2010-1-25 Home 2 63 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Fred Jones 2009-3-2 Home 1 62 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Terrence Williams 2009-11-14 Away 1 58 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Shannon Brown 2010-12-8 Away 3 57 Play-by-Play on ESPN
Raymond Felton 2009-2-18 Home 1 57 Play-by-Play on ESPN

P.S. If you’d like more information for those shots about certain players you should visit my other post about this topic.

Advertisements
 
3 Comments

Posted by on June 19, 2011 in Scrutiny

 

Tags: , , , , , , ,

3 responses to “Long Shots, Study of Buzzer-Beaters Over 30 Feet

  1. Jonathan Blind

    August 6, 2011 at 21:21

    I always was interested in this subject and stock still am, thanks for posting .

     

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s