NBA Draft 2011 didn’t disappoint in terms of providing entertainment with interesting decisions, picks and trades but it’s over so it’s time for some conclusions… no, I don’t mean judging teams or drafted players with special grading scales [where almost all teams were above average!] but to answer a question which doesn’t require waiting few years: Who Had The Best and Worst 2011 Mock Drafts on the Internet?
(You can also check expanded version for mock drafts in 2012 and 2013!)
Obviously, I couldn’t cover every mock available on the web but here’s what I did:
1) 12 hours before NBA Draft I saved on my hard drive pages from as many latest 1st round mocks as possible. Mostly from widely known authors/sources but I also added some random googled ones.
For more fun and information I also added older versions.
2) I graded every mock by an average absolute difference between the mocked and actual picks.
For example Derrick Williams was drafted at #2 so if you had him at #1 you would get a score of “1” but if you had him at #5 you would get a score of “3”. Got it? If a player went undrafted I counted that as a “30” because of the entire second round. I did the aforementioned thing for every pick in every mock and calculate an average for the entire first round so the lower the number the more accurate mock was.
BTW, if you are interested what’s the score for YOUR mock draft let me know in the comments.
Although there better be some kind of valid information about a date.
It won’t be fun to judge mock which has been written after real draft ;-)
OK, let the mock draft challenge begin! Here are the results… (Number before name means “earlier version”):
|Author||Link to Source||Only Lottery||Total Diff||# of nailed picks||# of picks with 10+ difference||Average Error for 1st Round|
|David Kay||Downloaded from||1,786||100||7||1||3,33|
|Sam Amick||Downloaded from||1,643||131||8||5||4,37|
|6Chad Ford||Downloaded from||3,571||136||3||3||4,53|
|2Sam Amick||Downloaded from||3,000||138||4||3||4,60|
|Steve Kyler||Downloaded from||3,286||154||5||4||5,13|
|Jonathan Carrano||Downloaded from||2,714||154||4||5||5,13|
|Christopher Reina||Downloaded from||1,929||162||5||4||5,40|
|Allen Moll||Downloaded from||5,071||169||3||4||5,63|
|3Chad Ford||Downloaded from||3,643||171||3||5||5,70|
|Kristofer Habbas||Downloaded from||2,714||172||4||5||5,73|
|Alex Raskin||Downloaded from||3,000||173||2||7||5,77|
|Joel Brigham||Downloaded from||3,000||176||3||6||5,87|
|“Ben Golliver”||Downloaded from||2,714||179||5||8||5,97|
|Neal Leitereg||Downloaded from||2,857||181||7||5||6,03|
|2Alex Raskin||Downloaded from||2,500||183||3||7||6,10|
|3Christopher Reina||Downloaded from||2,857||185||4||6||6,17|
|2Yannis Koutroupis||Downloaded from||3,214||186||5||7||6,20|
|Charlie Zegers||Downloaded from||3,786||188||4||7||6,27|
|Luke Byrnes||Downloaded from||3,857||189||1||5||6,30|
|Scott Howard-Cooper||Downloaded from||2,786||191||5||8||6,37|
|2Luke Byrnes||Downloaded from||3,571||198||3||6||6,60|
|Sean Deveney||Downloaded from||3,429||199||4||7||6,63|
|2Steve Kyler||Downloaded from||5,429||212||2||10||7,07|
|Yannis Koutroupis||Downloaded from||4,214||214||3||8||7,13|
|2Joel Brigham||Downloaded from||4,286||214||2||9||7,13|
|“Matt Moore”||Downloaded from||4,571||224||3||7||7,47|
Unsurprisingly [?] professional writers were better than amateurs… although not all of them because CBSSports, Hoopsworld, InsideHoops and Sporting News struck out badly but…
for now congratulations go to David Kay from thesportsbank.net!
We could also thank nbadraft.net, Sam Amick, nba-draft.com, DraftExpress and Chad Ford for either good sources or good luck ;-)
Note that not all of earlier versions were better than latest ones!
Overall the biggest problems in the lottery were with those picks [and in that order]:
#14, #13, #9, #12, #7, #11, #8 while #1, #2 and #4 were the easiest ones.
Here’s the list of accurate guesses for each pick:
#01-#10: 33, 31, 11, 3, 2, 15, 0, 0, 2, 0,
#11-#20: 7, 1, 3, 0, 0, 5, 5, 1, 3, 6,
#21-#30: 0, 7, 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2.