Grading NBA Mock Drafts 2013 From Best To Worst

NBA Draft 2013 started with a huge surprise at the top and remained unpredictable through the rest of it.
Because I once again gathered data for my project accuracy of NBA mock drafts I accidentally measured just how unpredictable it was! Here are some key statistics… I processed 263 NBA mock drafts and among them:
Only 4 mock drafts had Anthony Bennett going number 1. F-O-U-R! That’s below 2 percent!
Congratulations to Todd Salem, Greg, Trey and Jason Quint for a really bold prediction which turned out to be accurate but, interestingly, overall their mocks were average.

66 different players appeared in at least one first round mock draft and I have to give props to Tim who was the only one with Solomon Hill included.

Around 22% of mock drafts nailed selection of Victor Oladipo at number 2 but only 6 mocks had Cody Zeller 4th to Bobcats, 21 mock drafts had Alex Len at #5, only 3 mocks had Ben McLemore at #7 and…
literally NOBODY had Nerlens Noel being drafted at #6!! How is that for unpredictable top picks?!?
For comparison, among Top7 picks in mock drafts in 2012 only Dion Waiters and Harrison Barnes were surprises on a similar scale.

On the other side, Otto Porter was at #3 in majority of mocks – 73% to be precise.

With all that said you can see why it wasn’t a great year for mock drafts’ accuracy but despite such wild Top7 and lower average score than in previous years, people at the top still managed to distance themselves from others. So…Who Had The Best and Worst 2013 Mock Drafts on the Internet?

To answer this question here’s what I did:

1) after the draft lottery I saved on my hard drive pages from as many first round mock drafts as I could quickly gather. Mostly from widely known authors/sources but I also added many googled ones and tried to include authors from last years’ post [hence the growth]. I repeated this exercise weekly up to the day before actual NBA Draft when I had a final push for the data.
In 2011 I checked 33 mock drafts, in 2012 I expanded efforts to 122, this year I ended up with 263 NBA Mock Drafts. So my quest to cover every mock available on the web continues ;-)

2) I graded every mock by an average absolute difference between the mocked and actual picks.
So for example, if you had Nerlens Noel at number 1 in your mock draft your score for #6 [where he went] was “5” but if you had him at #9 you would get a score of “3”. Simple, right?
I did the aforementioned thing for every pick in every mock and calculate an average for the entire first round so the lower the number the more accurate mock was. Players who were predicted as first rounders but were drafted in the second round counted but if a player went undrafted his position was “61”.

There are three important notes about this excercise:
– because I tried to capture content which was quickly changing some of the links provided won’t work. It’s not my fault that people use the same address or page for often changing content. I could just upload those saved files but that probably wouldn’t be legal so I just posted a PDF file with every pick of every mock I’ve processed.

– as in previous years, I didn’t try to include versions of mocks published in the last hours before the draft because not only I don’t want to chase last minute updates or rumors from teams or possible leaks but I also question the value of such mocks which are online for 50 minutes… especially when at this point you can just wait for the real event.

– it’s kind of obvious but, as a remainder, please don’t assume that mock drafts represent entire value of those sites or authors. Even if someone had a really good/bad mock it doesn’t mean their analysis of players was good/bad too. It may have been, I don’t know, I didn’t include it in any way.

OK, let the mock draft challenge begin! Here are the results…

author	date	source	Only Lottery	# of nailed picks	# of picks with 10+ difference	Average Error for 1st Round
Jeff Fox	06/24	Downloaded from	2,29	2	3	3,70
David Kay	06/26	Downloaded from	2,50	3	4	3,77
Aran Smith	06/27	Downloaded from	2,29	5	4	4,00
Aran Smith	06/09	Downloaded from	2,79	3	2	4,03
Cammo	06/21	Downloaded from	2,21	7	3	4,10
nbadraftroom	06/25	Downloaded from	2,71	2	3	4,10
Aran Smith	06/18	Downloaded from	3,21	0	2	4,13
Jeff Fox	06/13	Downloaded from	2,29	4	4	4,17
Cammo	06/18	Downloaded from	2,93	2	4	4,20
Tom Fehn	06/18	Downloaded from	3,21	0	3	4,20
prospect-central	06/24	Downloaded from	2,29	3	4	4,30
mcsiccness	06/14	Downloaded from	2,71	3	4	4,33
Rob Wegley	06/25	Downloaded from	2,36	5	4	4,33
nbadraftroom	06/21	Downloaded from	2,93	2	3	4,37
nbadraft.net	06/19	Downloaded from	2,93	2	4	4,47
Andrew Anderson	06/24	Downloaded from	3,29	5	3	4,47
Prospect central	06/15	Downloaded from	3,00	3	4	4,50
mynbadraft	06/25	Downloaded from	2,36	4	4	4,53
Alan Lu	06/26	Downloaded from	2,36	4	5	4,53
Chad Ford	06/18	Downloaded from	2,29	4	4	4,60
ATS Consultants	06/25	Downloaded from	2,93	2	4	4,63
MVP2110	06/25	Downloaded from	3,00	5	4	4,63
Cammo	06/25	Downloaded from	2,43	6	5	4,67
DraftExpress	06/25	Downloaded from	3,29	1	4	4,67
DraftExpress	06/27	Downloaded from	3,14	3	4	4,67
Cammo	06/10	Downloaded from	3,07	3	3	4,70
kmatrixg	06/24	Downloaded from	3,71	3	5	4,70
David Kay	06/27	Downloaded from	2,79	5	4	4,70
Dennis Velasco	06/11	Downloaded from	2,64	4	5	4,73
Scott Howard-Cooper	06/20	Downloaded from	2,71	2	4	4,73
Ed Isaacson	06/22	Downloaded from	2,86	3	6	4,73
fourpointplay	06/25	Downloaded from	2,43	5	4	4,73
DraftExpress	06/19	Downloaded from	3,29	1	5	4,77
Chad Ford	06/27	Downloaded from	2,71	3	5	4,80
J.G. Spooner	06/17	Downloaded from	2,64	3	6	4,83
RotoRob	06/17	Downloaded from	2,57	3	4	4,83
Crossover	06/20	Downloaded from	3,00	3	5	4,83
SportSmasher	06/24	Downloaded from	2,43	3	4	4,87
Aran Smith	06/25	Downloaded from	3,43	2	4	4,87
Joe Kotoch	06/26	Downloaded from	2,93	1	5	4,90
nbadraft.net	05/30	Downloaded from	3,07	4	4	4,93
Matt Moran	06/14	Downloaded from	2,93	3	3	4,93
nbadraft.net	06/25	Downloaded from	3,43	3	4	4,93
Alex Kennedy	06/26	Downloaded from	2,79	1	5	4,93
DraftExpress	06/11	Downloaded from	3,36	1	5	4,97
Alex Hooper	06/26	Downloaded from	2,86	3	5	4,97
Steve Kyler	06/26	Downloaded from	3,21	2	5	4,97
Adi Joseph	06/25	Downloaded from	3,07	3	3	5,00
Matt Moran	06/25	Downloaded from	3,07	4	4	5,00
Talent Chaser	06/14	Downloaded from	3,36	2	4	5,03
nba-draft	06/19	Downloaded from	2,43	3	4	5,03
Hayden Grove	06/24	Downloaded from	3,29	2	5	5,03
NBA Draft Central	06/19	Downloaded from	3,21	1	7	5,07
InsideHoops	06/21	Downloaded from	2,43	1	5	5,07
probasketballdraft	06/25	Downloaded from	2,86	2	5	5,07
gswhoops	06/26	Downloaded from	2,86	1	6	5,10
Kevin Hanson	06/26	Downloaded from	2,79	2	5	5,10
sdhmockdraft	06/26	Downloaded from	3,00	2	5	5,10
Jon Elliott	06/18	Downloaded from	2,93	3	4	5,13
Alex Hooper	06/20	Downloaded from	2,57	5	6	5,17
ATS Consultants	06/20	Downloaded from	2,86	2	5	5,17
Matt Catagnus	06/21	Downloaded from	3,36	3	5	5,17
[RCG]	06/24	Downloaded from	3,14	4	5	5,17
Mitch Lawrence	06/27	Downloaded from	2,14	3	6	5,17
Philly.com	06/26	Downloaded from	2,93	0	5	5,20
Michael Kaskey-Blomain	06/08	Downloaded from	3,14	2	6	5,23
Matt Fish	06/23	Downloaded from	2,79	2	3	5,23
Joel Brigham	06/26	Downloaded from	2,79	4	4	5,23
Alex Hooper	06/11	Downloaded from	2,86	4	6	5,30
Matt Shetler	06/10	Downloaded from	2,43	4	8	5,33
Krapinsky	06/24	Downloaded from	2,50	2	7	5,33
Tyler Jamieson	06/24	Downloaded from	3,29	3	5	5,33
DeyAce	06/08	Downloaded from	3,21	1	4	5,37
Michael Kaskey-Blomain	06/10	Downloaded from	2,79	2	7	5,37
DD_reynolds	06/12	Downloaded from	3,57	1	7	5,37
Chris Fedor	06/25	Downloaded from	3,29	1	5	5,37
Trey	06/17	Downloaded from	3,14	6	6	5,40
Ben Florance	06/18	Downloaded from	2,93	1	5	5,40
Ross Gasmer	06/20	Downloaded from	2,50	3	6	5,40
nbadraft.net consensus	06/26	Downloaded from	3,00	4	4	5,40
Steve Alexander	06/13	Downloaded from	2,57	4	6	5,43
Dime Magazine	06/17	Downloaded from	2,64	3	6	5,43
Steve Kyler	06/26	Downloaded from	2,86	2	5	5,43
Todd Salem	06/22	Downloaded from	2,21	1	7	5,47
stevenlourie	06/26	Downloaded from	3,79	1	4	5,47
Alex Kennedy	06/14	Downloaded from	3,93	3	6	5,50
Joe Kotoch	06/18	Downloaded from	3,00	3	6	5,50
Alex Kennedy	06/19	Downloaded from	3,07	2	7	5,50
Joe Kotoch	06/21	Downloaded from	3,00	3	6	5,50
WDSU Pelicans	06/22	Downloaded from	3,36	3	4	5,53
probasketballdraft	06/19	Downloaded from	3,00	3	6	5,57
Yannis Koutroupis	06/26	Downloaded from	2,86	4	5	5,57
Jonathan Carrano	06/22	Downloaded from	2,86	2	5	5,60
Joe Kotoch	06/24	Downloaded from	2,93	2	6	5,63
kmatrixg	06/25	Downloaded from	3,36	0	4	5,63
Zach Reynolds	06/23	Downloaded from	2,14	6	6	5,70
Chris Mannix	06/25	Downloaded from	3,21	1	5	5,70
Sean Deveney	06/17	Downloaded from	3,29	3	5	5,73
Darren Heitner	06/24	Downloaded from	3,86	1	6	5,73
Matthew Shovlin	06/25	Downloaded from	2,50	3	6	5,73
Cammo	06/08	Downloaded from	3,86	4	9	5,77
Joel Brigham	06/14	Downloaded from	2,86	4	6	5,77
Pete Schauer	06/15	Downloaded from	3,64	3	5	5,77
Joel Brigham	06/19	Downloaded from	3,14	0	4	5,77
ATS Consultants	06/07	Downloaded from	2,86	5	8	5,80
John Rohde	06/23	Downloaded from	3,21	3	6	5,80
Chris Mannix	06/19	Downloaded from	2,93	2	7	5,83
Sean Deveney	06/10	Downloaded from	5,00	2	3	5,87
3MW	06/24	Downloaded from	3,64	3	7	5,87
boblongsports	06/26	Downloaded from	3,00	0	7	5,87
brianemory1	06/05	Downloaded from	3,07	1	6	5,90
David Kay	06/12	Downloaded from	3,64	0	8	5,93
Sean Deveney	06/24	Downloaded from	3,43	3	6	5,93
MidAmPub	06/17	Downloaded from	3,14	2	6	5,97
truesportblog	06/23	Downloaded from	2,93	2	7	5,97
Court Visionaries	06/07	Downloaded from	3,14	2	6	6,00
Ben Florance	06/11	Downloaded from	3,93	1	6	6,00
Yannis Koutroupis	06/19	Downloaded from	3,29	2	5	6,00
Jared Young	05/28	Downloaded from	3,86	2	5	6,03
Bob Finnan	06/15	Downloaded from	2,93	5	6	6,03
mynbadraft	06/18	Downloaded from	3,93	2	7	6,03
Jonathan Tjarks	06/24	Downloaded from	2,79	1	6	6,03
fantasycouch	06/26	Downloaded from	3,21	2	8	6,07
Scott Howard-Cooper	06/12	Downloaded from	2,71	3	5	6,10
Sam Amico	06/13	Downloaded from	2,14	5	6	6,13
Alex Strouf	06/24	Downloaded from	3,14	3	6	6,13
HouRealCoach	06/14	Downloaded from	3,36	2	3	6,17
Rich Keefe	06/25	Downloaded from	2,93	2	8	6,20
drafttek	06/26	Downloaded from	2,86	1	5	6,20
Paradigmn13	05/22	Downloaded from	2,93	3	5	6,23
Steve Kyler	06/09	Downloaded from	3,14	3	8	6,23
Mike Tuck	06/10	Downloaded from	5,14	1	5	6,27
Kyle Baillargeon	06/24	Downloaded from	3,57	0	6	6,27
Andrew	06/20	Downloaded from	2,57	2	7	6,30
SportSmasher	06/06	Downloaded from	6,29	2	5	6,33
nbadraft.net consensus	06/22	Downloaded from	3,29	3	6	6,43
NBA Prospects	05/31	Downloaded from	3,57	3	6	6,47
[RCG]	06/14	Downloaded from	2,86	2	7	6,47
Greg	06/20	Downloaded from	2,50	3	8	6,50
Sean Kane	06/13	Downloaded from	2,86	5	7	6,53
Legion Report	06/24	Downloaded from	3,00	1	7	6,53
Sideline Mob	06/12	Downloaded from	3,21	3	8	6,57
Steve Kyler	06/19	Downloaded from	3,71	2	6	6,57
Yannis Koutroupis	05/29	Downloaded from	2,93	3	7	6,60
Steve Kyler	06/14	Downloaded from	3,29	0	7	6,60
Jeff Fox	05/29	Downloaded from	6,50	2	7	6,63
Maefteda	06/11	Downloaded from	6,00	5	7	6,63
Tab Bamford	06/27	Downloaded from	3,86	3	7	6,63
nba-draft	06/04	Downloaded from	5,50	4	7	6,67
nbadraftroom2	06/11	Downloaded from	3,14	0	7	6,73
Brendan Donahue	06/12	Downloaded from	6,29	1	6	6,73
Fans on fire	06/15	Downloaded from	3,21	2	9	6,77
Kevin McClernand	06/18	Downloaded from	3,57	0	9	6,77
Michael Kaskey-Blomain	05/31	Downloaded from	2,93	2	9	6,80
Erik C. Anderson	06/07	Downloaded from	6,36	6	8	6,80
Matt Moore	06/19	Downloaded from	4,43	2	6	6,80
Jonathan Carrano	05/31	Downloaded from	3,00	0	7	6,83
Chad Ford	06/04	Downloaded from	5,36	5	8	6,83
LuckyDog Sports	06/04	Downloaded from	3,86	1	8	6,83
Yannis Koutroupis	06/14	Downloaded from	3,50	4	7	6,87
Mike Pece	06/27	Downloaded from	5,00	1	6	6,87
Gary Parrish	06/11	Downloaded from	3,64	1	7	6,90
sportscoma	06/04	Downloaded from	3,50	3	4	6,93
Tyler Conway	06/16	Downloaded from	6,07	2	7	6,93
Masstastic	06/19	Downloaded from	4,71	1	8	6,97
Fischella	05/22	Downloaded from	6,57	1	6	7,00
Cammo	05/30	Downloaded from	7,14	4	8	7,00
probasketballdraft	06/05	Downloaded from	3,79	3	8	7,03
Josh Stirn	05/24	Downloaded from	7,57	2	5	7,07
James Edwards III	06/24	Downloaded from	2,36	4	9	7,07
David Aldridge	06/24	Downloaded from	3,79	2	9	7,13
Sam Barder	06/15	Downloaded from	6,00	3	7	7,23
John Adair	06/05	Downloaded from	2,86	3	7	7,27
Ryan McNeill	06/25	Downloaded from	2,36	0	6	7,27
diehardfandom	06/02	Downloaded from	4,21	1	7	7,30
DraftExpress	05/23	Downloaded from	4,00	1	8	7,43
sportscity	05/31	Downloaded from	3,57	3	8	7,47
All Out Press	06/19	Downloaded from	5,57	1	8	7,50
NBA Draft Insider	06/17	Downloaded from	3,93	3	9	7,53
Steve Alexander	05/26	Downloaded from	3,86	2	8	7,57
Crossover	05/23	Downloaded from	6,00	1	9	7,60
Sam Amico	05/23	Downloaded from	3,93	2	6	7,60
Joel Brigham	06/06	Downloaded from	3,93	0	9	7,60
Ben Florance	05/29	Downloaded from	4,29	2	7	7,63
MidAmPub	06/04	Downloaded from	6,50	3	8	7,63
Chris Fedor	06/07	Downloaded from	7,86	2	7	7,63
julienrodger	06/26	Downloaded from	2,86	5	8	7,63
nbadraft.net consensus	06/12	Downloaded from	3,29	4	7	7,67
metsfanpage	05/26	Downloaded from	6,64	1	6	7,73
The Undersized Basketball	06/05	Downloaded from	3,86	2	7	7,73
mynbadraft	06/11	Downloaded from	5,64	4	8	7,73
Yannis Koutroupis	06/06	Downloaded from	4,57	1	8	7,80
Chris Mannix	06/14	Downloaded from	6,43	1	8	7,80
Scott Howard-Cooper	05/22	Downloaded from	3,79	2	8	7,87
Mike Lucas	05/23	Downloaded from	8,29	2	7	7,87
Brian Emory & James McNeill	05/29	Downloaded from	4,14	1	10	7,90
Howard	06/12	Downloaded from	3,50	1	7	7,90
MidAmPub	05/22	Downloaded from	7,14	1	7	7,93
Alex Kennedy	06/06	Downloaded from	3,79	3	7	7,93
James Edwards III	06/07	Downloaded from	3,57	2	9	7,93
nbadraftroom	05/31	Downloaded from	2,93	2	8	7,97
Jonathan Tjarks	06/03	Downloaded from	3,79	2	9	7,97
Joel Brigham	05/29	Downloaded from	5,71	3	8	8,00
John	06/26	Downloaded from	4,50	1	8	8,00
Chad Ford	05/21	Downloaded from	6,29	3	9	8,03
The Sports Guys	05/29	Downloaded from	6,00	3	7	8,03
Kyle Baillargeon	06/02	Downloaded from	6,50	1	6	8,03
Sam Amico	06/06	Downloaded from	3,14	2	8	8,03
Joel Welser	06/13	Downloaded from	4,21	4	7	8,03
jets369	06/23	Downloaded from	8,00	0	9	8,03
stoopbasketball	05/22	Downloaded from	4,07	1	7	8,07
Hoops Report	06/16	Downloaded from	5,64	3	7	8,07
LJEATON26	06/02	Downloaded from	4,29	1	7	8,10
Howard	06/25	Downloaded from	3,79	1	7	8,10
Alex Hooper	05/30	Downloaded from	6,79	0	9	8,13
Mohamed Ali Saneh	05/24	Downloaded from	4,43	1	8	8,17
Jonathan Feigen	05/26	Downloaded from	9,14	1	9	8,20
Dime Magazine	06/06	Downloaded from	7,07	2	8	8,20
Scott Shirley	06/17	Downloaded from	2,93	2	7	8,20
Jimmy Belluscio	05/25	Downloaded from	3,21	2	8	8,40
DRAFT TEK	06/07	Downloaded from	7,50	4	6	8,40
Legion Report	05/24	Downloaded from	4,50	1	9	8,43
Chris Mannix	05/29	Downloaded from	6,79	1	7	8,47
Tim	06/26	Downloaded from	5,36	0	9	8,47
Chris Fedor	05/24	Downloaded from	4,07	2	9	8,50
Steve Kyler	05/29	Downloaded from	5,14	1	8	8,50
Shaun Powell	05/22	Downloaded from	3,43	3	7	8,57
Alex Kennedy	05/29	Downloaded from	5,21	1	10	8,60
Conrad Kaczmarek	05/28	Downloaded from	6,36	3	9	8,63
Trey	05/27	Downloaded from	7,36	2	6	8,67
Tom Clayton	05/29	Downloaded from	5,36	2	10	8,67
Kevin McClernand	05/30	Downloaded from	7,00	1	7	8,67
nbadraftinsider	05/30	Downloaded from	5,36	3	9	8,70
Matt Moore	05/22	Downloaded from	5,50	2	11	8,73
Richard Langford	06/11	Downloaded from	3,93	1	11	8,73
David Kay	05/23	Downloaded from	7,64	0	9	8,77
Kevin Hanson	05/24	Downloaded from	4,43	1	7	8,77
Joe Kotoch	05/29	Downloaded from	4,07	2	8	8,77
Allen Moll	05/27	Downloaded from	3,57	2	10	8,80
Steve	05/31	Downloaded from	4,00	0	9	8,83
Andrew Doxy	06/15	Downloaded from	6,43	2	9	8,83
nbadraft.net Consensus	05/31	Downloaded from	3,57	3	8	8,87
Jason Quint	06/15	Downloaded from	4,43	1	9	8,90
Steve Kyler	06/06	Downloaded from	6,64	1	10	9,00
Ryan McNeill	05/22	Downloaded from	4,64	1	8	9,03
FrankSantos	06/17	Downloaded from	5,00	2	9	9,03
probasketballdraft	05/21	Downloaded from	4,07	1	9	9,13
Chris Ransom	05/30	Downloaded from	7,93	2	8	9,13
Matt Fischer	06/24	Downloaded from	3,43	1	10	9,17
Krapinsky	05/28	Downloaded from	5,93	1	9	9,23
Aggrey Sam	05/23	Downloaded from	7,21	2	10	9,33
gswhoops	05/30	Downloaded from	4,79	3	7	9,33
John	06/09	Downloaded from	4,50	1	9	9,40
Adam Glanzman	06/19	Downloaded from	7,29	1	8	9,47
Tim	05/26	Downloaded from	5,07	2	10	9,60
Mike E	06/05	Downloaded from	4,36	1	10	10,07
Sports Hound	06/13	Downloaded from	4,93	0	9	10,20
Mike Elworth	05/22	Downloaded from	4,36	1	9	10,40
Adam Glanzman	06/02	Downloaded from	7,29	1	9	10,47
Brandon	05/23	Downloaded from	6,93	1	9	11,00
Sports Hound	05/23	Downloaded from	6,57	0	10	11,83
DraftSite	06/22	Downloaded from	8,36	3	10	12,97
DraftSite	05/31	Downloaded from	5,57	3	12	13,47

Congratulations to Jeff Fox from hoopsmanifesto.com!
He not only had the best mock I could find but his mid-June version was in the Top10 too!
But here’s the interesting part: it was simply a crowd-wisdom approach…

The Hoops Manifesto has determined the consensus top 60 prospects for the 2013 NBA Draft. We took the mock drafts from four of the web’s best: DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, NBA Draft Room, and WalterFootball.com, crunched the numbers and came up with our list.

So who should get the credit in this case??

Some other notes about this set of mocks:

Sooooo close to three-peat for David Kay from thesportsbank.net! But this time I’m a little less amazed by his accomplishment because I’m annoyed about his policy of having the same web address for every mock… and his final version, which is visible, was not the best one. Ugh, what a mess. But that’s just me, he should keep up the great work anyway ;-)

Aran Smith from nbadraft.net appears 3 times in the Top10 and each mock was created around week apart so you could argue he had a great sense of talent pool which will be selected… and was just toying with the order, but still, congratulations! But he also had the same page for every mock…

On the other spectrum we have the worst mocks I’ve measured…
but note that all of them were created just after the lottery.
The lesson here is interesting, not only on aggregate mocks improve by 10-20% over 7 days or so, but almost every author who appeared here multiple times actually did improve his score. Do teams know more what they will do as we get closer to the draft so people with mocks has more sense what will happen?

On lighter side, 2013 draft has a chance to be all-time best… in misspelled names.
Kid from Greece alone is HoF-worthy already: I’ve read 7 different versions of his name! They were different even on the same site! But Gorgui, Kentavious, Nogueira, Sergey, Schroeder and Shabazz Muhammad rounded a strong class for possible misspelled names…

OK, that’s it for now, if you have any questions or want some answers about the dataset,
let me know in the comments.