NBA Draft 2013 started with a huge surprise at the top and remained unpredictable through the rest of it.
Because I once again gathered data for my project accuracy of NBA mock drafts I accidentally measured just how unpredictable it was! Here are some key statistics… I processed 263 NBA mock drafts and among them:
Only 4 mock drafts had Anthony Bennett going number 1. F-O-U-R! That’s below 2 percent!
Congratulations to Todd Salem, Greg, Trey and Jason Quint for a really bold prediction which turned out to be accurate but, interestingly, overall their mocks were average.
66 different players appeared in at least one first round mock draft and I have to give props to Tim who was the only one with Solomon Hill included.
Around 22% of mock drafts nailed selection of Victor Oladipo at number 2 but only 6 mocks had Cody Zeller 4th to Bobcats, 21 mock drafts had Alex Len at #5, only 3 mocks had Ben McLemore at #7 and…
literally NOBODY had Nerlens Noel being drafted at #6!! How is that for unpredictable top picks?!?
For comparison, among Top7 picks in mock drafts in 2012 only Dion Waiters and Harrison Barnes were surprises on a similar scale.
On the other side, Otto Porter was at #3 in majority of mocks – 73% to be precise.
With all that said you can see why it wasn’t a great year for mock drafts’ accuracy but despite such wild Top7 and lower average score than in previous years, people at the top still managed to distance themselves from others. So…Who Had The Best and Worst 2013 Mock Drafts on the Internet?
To answer this question here’s what I did:
1) after the draft lottery I saved on my hard drive pages from as many first round mock drafts as I could quickly gather. Mostly from widely known authors/sources but I also added many googled ones and tried to include authors from last years’ post [hence the growth]. I repeated this exercise weekly up to the day before actual NBA Draft when I had a final push for the data.
In 2011 I checked 33 mock drafts, in 2012 I expanded efforts to 122, this year I ended up with 263 NBA Mock Drafts. So my quest to cover every mock available on the web continues ;-)
2) I graded every mock by an average absolute difference between the mocked and actual picks.
So for example, if you had Nerlens Noel at number 1 in your mock draft your score for #6 [where he went] was “5” but if you had him at #9 you would get a score of “3”. Simple, right?
I did the aforementioned thing for every pick in every mock and calculate an average for the entire first round so the lower the number the more accurate mock was. Players who were predicted as first rounders but were drafted in the second round counted but if a player went undrafted his position was “61”.
There are three important notes about this excercise:
– because I tried to capture content which was quickly changing some of the links provided won’t work. It’s not my fault that people use the same address or page for often changing content. I could just upload those saved files but that probably wouldn’t be legal so I just posted a PDF file with every pick of every mock I’ve processed.
– as in previous years, I didn’t try to include versions of mocks published in the last hours before the draft because not only I don’t want to chase last minute updates or rumors from teams or possible leaks but I also question the value of such mocks which are online for 50 minutes… especially when at this point you can just wait for the real event.
– it’s kind of obvious but, as a remainder, please don’t assume that mock drafts represent entire value of those sites or authors. Even if someone had a really good/bad mock it doesn’t mean their analysis of players was good/bad too. It may have been, I don’t know, I didn’t include it in any way.
OK, let the mock draft challenge begin! Here are the results…
author | date | source | Only Lottery | # of nailed picks | # of picks with 10+ difference | Average Error for 1st Round |
Jeff Fox | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 2,29 | 2 | 3 | 3,70 |
David Kay | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,50 | 3 | 4 | 3,77 |
Aran Smith | 06/27 | Downloaded from | 2,29 | 5 | 4 | 4,00 |
Aran Smith | 06/09 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 3 | 2 | 4,03 |
Cammo | 06/21 | Downloaded from | 2,21 | 7 | 3 | 4,10 |
nbadraftroom | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,71 | 2 | 3 | 4,10 |
Aran Smith | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 0 | 2 | 4,13 |
Jeff Fox | 06/13 | Downloaded from | 2,29 | 4 | 4 | 4,17 |
Cammo | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 4 | 4,20 |
Tom Fehn | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 0 | 3 | 4,20 |
prospect-central | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 2,29 | 3 | 4 | 4,30 |
mcsiccness | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 2,71 | 3 | 4 | 4,33 |
Rob Wegley | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,36 | 5 | 4 | 4,33 |
nbadraftroom | 06/21 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 3 | 4,37 |
nbadraft.net | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 4 | 4,47 |
Andrew Anderson | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 5 | 3 | 4,47 |
Prospect central | 06/15 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 3 | 4 | 4,50 |
mynbadraft | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,36 | 4 | 4 | 4,53 |
Alan Lu | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,36 | 4 | 5 | 4,53 |
Chad Ford | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 2,29 | 4 | 4 | 4,60 |
ATS Consultants | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 4 | 4,63 |
MVP2110 | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 5 | 4 | 4,63 |
Cammo | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,43 | 6 | 5 | 4,67 |
DraftExpress | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 1 | 4 | 4,67 |
DraftExpress | 06/27 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 3 | 4 | 4,67 |
Cammo | 06/10 | Downloaded from | 3,07 | 3 | 3 | 4,70 |
kmatrixg | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,71 | 3 | 5 | 4,70 |
David Kay | 06/27 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 5 | 4 | 4,70 |
Dennis Velasco | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 2,64 | 4 | 5 | 4,73 |
Scott Howard-Cooper | 06/20 | Downloaded from | 2,71 | 2 | 4 | 4,73 |
Ed Isaacson | 06/22 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 3 | 6 | 4,73 |
fourpointplay | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,43 | 5 | 4 | 4,73 |
DraftExpress | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 1 | 5 | 4,77 |
Chad Ford | 06/27 | Downloaded from | 2,71 | 3 | 5 | 4,80 |
J.G. Spooner | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 2,64 | 3 | 6 | 4,83 |
RotoRob | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 2,57 | 3 | 4 | 4,83 |
Crossover | 06/20 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 3 | 5 | 4,83 |
SportSmasher | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 2,43 | 3 | 4 | 4,87 |
Aran Smith | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,43 | 2 | 4 | 4,87 |
Joe Kotoch | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 1 | 5 | 4,90 |
nbadraft.net | 05/30 | Downloaded from | 3,07 | 4 | 4 | 4,93 |
Matt Moran | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 3 | 3 | 4,93 |
nbadraft.net | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,43 | 3 | 4 | 4,93 |
Alex Kennedy | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 1 | 5 | 4,93 |
DraftExpress | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 3,36 | 1 | 5 | 4,97 |
Alex Hooper | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 3 | 5 | 4,97 |
Steve Kyler | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 2 | 5 | 4,97 |
Adi Joseph | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,07 | 3 | 3 | 5,00 |
Matt Moran | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,07 | 4 | 4 | 5,00 |
Talent Chaser | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 3,36 | 2 | 4 | 5,03 |
nba-draft | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 2,43 | 3 | 4 | 5,03 |
Hayden Grove | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 2 | 5 | 5,03 |
NBA Draft Central | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 1 | 7 | 5,07 |
InsideHoops | 06/21 | Downloaded from | 2,43 | 1 | 5 | 5,07 |
probasketballdraft | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 2 | 5 | 5,07 |
gswhoops | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 1 | 6 | 5,10 |
Kevin Hanson | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 2 | 5 | 5,10 |
sdhmockdraft | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 2 | 5 | 5,10 |
Jon Elliott | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 3 | 4 | 5,13 |
Alex Hooper | 06/20 | Downloaded from | 2,57 | 5 | 6 | 5,17 |
ATS Consultants | 06/20 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 2 | 5 | 5,17 |
Matt Catagnus | 06/21 | Downloaded from | 3,36 | 3 | 5 | 5,17 |
[RCG] | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 4 | 5 | 5,17 |
Mitch Lawrence | 06/27 | Downloaded from | 2,14 | 3 | 6 | 5,17 |
Philly.com | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 0 | 5 | 5,20 |
Michael Kaskey-Blomain | 06/08 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 2 | 6 | 5,23 |
Matt Fish | 06/23 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 2 | 3 | 5,23 |
Joel Brigham | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 4 | 4 | 5,23 |
Alex Hooper | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 4 | 6 | 5,30 |
Matt Shetler | 06/10 | Downloaded from | 2,43 | 4 | 8 | 5,33 |
Krapinsky | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 2,50 | 2 | 7 | 5,33 |
Tyler Jamieson | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 3 | 5 | 5,33 |
DeyAce | 06/08 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 1 | 4 | 5,37 |
Michael Kaskey-Blomain | 06/10 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 2 | 7 | 5,37 |
DD_reynolds | 06/12 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 1 | 7 | 5,37 |
Chris Fedor | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 1 | 5 | 5,37 |
Trey | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 6 | 6 | 5,40 |
Ben Florance | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 1 | 5 | 5,40 |
Ross Gasmer | 06/20 | Downloaded from | 2,50 | 3 | 6 | 5,40 |
nbadraft.net consensus | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 4 | 4 | 5,40 |
Steve Alexander | 06/13 | Downloaded from | 2,57 | 4 | 6 | 5,43 |
Dime Magazine | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 2,64 | 3 | 6 | 5,43 |
Steve Kyler | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 2 | 5 | 5,43 |
Todd Salem | 06/22 | Downloaded from | 2,21 | 1 | 7 | 5,47 |
stevenlourie | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 3,79 | 1 | 4 | 5,47 |
Alex Kennedy | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 3,93 | 3 | 6 | 5,50 |
Joe Kotoch | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 3 | 6 | 5,50 |
Alex Kennedy | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 3,07 | 2 | 7 | 5,50 |
Joe Kotoch | 06/21 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 3 | 6 | 5,50 |
WDSU Pelicans | 06/22 | Downloaded from | 3,36 | 3 | 4 | 5,53 |
probasketballdraft | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 3 | 6 | 5,57 |
Yannis Koutroupis | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 4 | 5 | 5,57 |
Jonathan Carrano | 06/22 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 2 | 5 | 5,60 |
Joe Kotoch | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 6 | 5,63 |
kmatrixg | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,36 | 0 | 4 | 5,63 |
Zach Reynolds | 06/23 | Downloaded from | 2,14 | 6 | 6 | 5,70 |
Chris Mannix | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 1 | 5 | 5,70 |
Sean Deveney | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 3 | 5 | 5,73 |
Darren Heitner | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,86 | 1 | 6 | 5,73 |
Matthew Shovlin | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,50 | 3 | 6 | 5,73 |
Cammo | 06/08 | Downloaded from | 3,86 | 4 | 9 | 5,77 |
Joel Brigham | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 4 | 6 | 5,77 |
Pete Schauer | 06/15 | Downloaded from | 3,64 | 3 | 5 | 5,77 |
Joel Brigham | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 0 | 4 | 5,77 |
ATS Consultants | 06/07 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 5 | 8 | 5,80 |
John Rohde | 06/23 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 3 | 6 | 5,80 |
Chris Mannix | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 7 | 5,83 |
Sean Deveney | 06/10 | Downloaded from | 5,00 | 2 | 3 | 5,87 |
3MW | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,64 | 3 | 7 | 5,87 |
boblongsports | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 0 | 7 | 5,87 |
brianemory1 | 06/05 | Downloaded from | 3,07 | 1 | 6 | 5,90 |
David Kay | 06/12 | Downloaded from | 3,64 | 0 | 8 | 5,93 |
Sean Deveney | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,43 | 3 | 6 | 5,93 |
MidAmPub | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 2 | 6 | 5,97 |
truesportblog | 06/23 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 7 | 5,97 |
Court Visionaries | 06/07 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 2 | 6 | 6,00 |
Ben Florance | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 3,93 | 1 | 6 | 6,00 |
Yannis Koutroupis | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 2 | 5 | 6,00 |
Jared Young | 05/28 | Downloaded from | 3,86 | 2 | 5 | 6,03 |
Bob Finnan | 06/15 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 5 | 6 | 6,03 |
mynbadraft | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 3,93 | 2 | 7 | 6,03 |
Jonathan Tjarks | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 2,79 | 1 | 6 | 6,03 |
fantasycouch | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 2 | 8 | 6,07 |
Scott Howard-Cooper | 06/12 | Downloaded from | 2,71 | 3 | 5 | 6,10 |
Sam Amico | 06/13 | Downloaded from | 2,14 | 5 | 6 | 6,13 |
Alex Strouf | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 3 | 6 | 6,13 |
HouRealCoach | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 3,36 | 2 | 3 | 6,17 |
Rich Keefe | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 8 | 6,20 |
drafttek | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 1 | 5 | 6,20 |
Paradigmn13 | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 3 | 5 | 6,23 |
Steve Kyler | 06/09 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 3 | 8 | 6,23 |
Mike Tuck | 06/10 | Downloaded from | 5,14 | 1 | 5 | 6,27 |
Kyle Baillargeon | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 0 | 6 | 6,27 |
Andrew | 06/20 | Downloaded from | 2,57 | 2 | 7 | 6,30 |
SportSmasher | 06/06 | Downloaded from | 6,29 | 2 | 5 | 6,33 |
nbadraft.net consensus | 06/22 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 3 | 6 | 6,43 |
NBA Prospects | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 3 | 6 | 6,47 |
[RCG] | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 2 | 7 | 6,47 |
Greg | 06/20 | Downloaded from | 2,50 | 3 | 8 | 6,50 |
Sean Kane | 06/13 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 5 | 7 | 6,53 |
Legion Report | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 1 | 7 | 6,53 |
Sideline Mob | 06/12 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 3 | 8 | 6,57 |
Steve Kyler | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 3,71 | 2 | 6 | 6,57 |
Yannis Koutroupis | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 3 | 7 | 6,60 |
Steve Kyler | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 0 | 7 | 6,60 |
Jeff Fox | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 6,50 | 2 | 7 | 6,63 |
Maefteda | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 6,00 | 5 | 7 | 6,63 |
Tab Bamford | 06/27 | Downloaded from | 3,86 | 3 | 7 | 6,63 |
nba-draft | 06/04 | Downloaded from | 5,50 | 4 | 7 | 6,67 |
nbadraftroom2 | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 0 | 7 | 6,73 |
Brendan Donahue | 06/12 | Downloaded from | 6,29 | 1 | 6 | 6,73 |
Fans on fire | 06/15 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 2 | 9 | 6,77 |
Kevin McClernand | 06/18 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 0 | 9 | 6,77 |
Michael Kaskey-Blomain | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 9 | 6,80 |
Erik C. Anderson | 06/07 | Downloaded from | 6,36 | 6 | 8 | 6,80 |
Matt Moore | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 4,43 | 2 | 6 | 6,80 |
Jonathan Carrano | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 3,00 | 0 | 7 | 6,83 |
Chad Ford | 06/04 | Downloaded from | 5,36 | 5 | 8 | 6,83 |
LuckyDog Sports | 06/04 | Downloaded from | 3,86 | 1 | 8 | 6,83 |
Yannis Koutroupis | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 3,50 | 4 | 7 | 6,87 |
Mike Pece | 06/27 | Downloaded from | 5,00 | 1 | 6 | 6,87 |
Gary Parrish | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 3,64 | 1 | 7 | 6,90 |
sportscoma | 06/04 | Downloaded from | 3,50 | 3 | 4 | 6,93 |
Tyler Conway | 06/16 | Downloaded from | 6,07 | 2 | 7 | 6,93 |
Masstastic | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 4,71 | 1 | 8 | 6,97 |
Fischella | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 6,57 | 1 | 6 | 7,00 |
Cammo | 05/30 | Downloaded from | 7,14 | 4 | 8 | 7,00 |
probasketballdraft | 06/05 | Downloaded from | 3,79 | 3 | 8 | 7,03 |
Josh Stirn | 05/24 | Downloaded from | 7,57 | 2 | 5 | 7,07 |
James Edwards III | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 2,36 | 4 | 9 | 7,07 |
David Aldridge | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,79 | 2 | 9 | 7,13 |
Sam Barder | 06/15 | Downloaded from | 6,00 | 3 | 7 | 7,23 |
John Adair | 06/05 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 3 | 7 | 7,27 |
Ryan McNeill | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 2,36 | 0 | 6 | 7,27 |
diehardfandom | 06/02 | Downloaded from | 4,21 | 1 | 7 | 7,30 |
DraftExpress | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 4,00 | 1 | 8 | 7,43 |
sportscity | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 3 | 8 | 7,47 |
All Out Press | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 5,57 | 1 | 8 | 7,50 |
NBA Draft Insider | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 3,93 | 3 | 9 | 7,53 |
Steve Alexander | 05/26 | Downloaded from | 3,86 | 2 | 8 | 7,57 |
Crossover | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 6,00 | 1 | 9 | 7,60 |
Sam Amico | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 3,93 | 2 | 6 | 7,60 |
Joel Brigham | 06/06 | Downloaded from | 3,93 | 0 | 9 | 7,60 |
Ben Florance | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 4,29 | 2 | 7 | 7,63 |
MidAmPub | 06/04 | Downloaded from | 6,50 | 3 | 8 | 7,63 |
Chris Fedor | 06/07 | Downloaded from | 7,86 | 2 | 7 | 7,63 |
julienrodger | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 2,86 | 5 | 8 | 7,63 |
nbadraft.net consensus | 06/12 | Downloaded from | 3,29 | 4 | 7 | 7,67 |
metsfanpage | 05/26 | Downloaded from | 6,64 | 1 | 6 | 7,73 |
The Undersized Basketball | 06/05 | Downloaded from | 3,86 | 2 | 7 | 7,73 |
mynbadraft | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 5,64 | 4 | 8 | 7,73 |
Yannis Koutroupis | 06/06 | Downloaded from | 4,57 | 1 | 8 | 7,80 |
Chris Mannix | 06/14 | Downloaded from | 6,43 | 1 | 8 | 7,80 |
Scott Howard-Cooper | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 3,79 | 2 | 8 | 7,87 |
Mike Lucas | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 8,29 | 2 | 7 | 7,87 |
Brian Emory & James McNeill | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 4,14 | 1 | 10 | 7,90 |
Howard | 06/12 | Downloaded from | 3,50 | 1 | 7 | 7,90 |
MidAmPub | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 7,14 | 1 | 7 | 7,93 |
Alex Kennedy | 06/06 | Downloaded from | 3,79 | 3 | 7 | 7,93 |
James Edwards III | 06/07 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 2 | 9 | 7,93 |
nbadraftroom | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 8 | 7,97 |
Jonathan Tjarks | 06/03 | Downloaded from | 3,79 | 2 | 9 | 7,97 |
Joel Brigham | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 5,71 | 3 | 8 | 8,00 |
John | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 4,50 | 1 | 8 | 8,00 |
Chad Ford | 05/21 | Downloaded from | 6,29 | 3 | 9 | 8,03 |
The Sports Guys | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 6,00 | 3 | 7 | 8,03 |
Kyle Baillargeon | 06/02 | Downloaded from | 6,50 | 1 | 6 | 8,03 |
Sam Amico | 06/06 | Downloaded from | 3,14 | 2 | 8 | 8,03 |
Joel Welser | 06/13 | Downloaded from | 4,21 | 4 | 7 | 8,03 |
jets369 | 06/23 | Downloaded from | 8,00 | 0 | 9 | 8,03 |
stoopbasketball | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 4,07 | 1 | 7 | 8,07 |
Hoops Report | 06/16 | Downloaded from | 5,64 | 3 | 7 | 8,07 |
LJEATON26 | 06/02 | Downloaded from | 4,29 | 1 | 7 | 8,10 |
Howard | 06/25 | Downloaded from | 3,79 | 1 | 7 | 8,10 |
Alex Hooper | 05/30 | Downloaded from | 6,79 | 0 | 9 | 8,13 |
Mohamed Ali Saneh | 05/24 | Downloaded from | 4,43 | 1 | 8 | 8,17 |
Jonathan Feigen | 05/26 | Downloaded from | 9,14 | 1 | 9 | 8,20 |
Dime Magazine | 06/06 | Downloaded from | 7,07 | 2 | 8 | 8,20 |
Scott Shirley | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 2,93 | 2 | 7 | 8,20 |
Jimmy Belluscio | 05/25 | Downloaded from | 3,21 | 2 | 8 | 8,40 |
DRAFT TEK | 06/07 | Downloaded from | 7,50 | 4 | 6 | 8,40 |
Legion Report | 05/24 | Downloaded from | 4,50 | 1 | 9 | 8,43 |
Chris Mannix | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 6,79 | 1 | 7 | 8,47 |
Tim | 06/26 | Downloaded from | 5,36 | 0 | 9 | 8,47 |
Chris Fedor | 05/24 | Downloaded from | 4,07 | 2 | 9 | 8,50 |
Steve Kyler | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 5,14 | 1 | 8 | 8,50 |
Shaun Powell | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 3,43 | 3 | 7 | 8,57 |
Alex Kennedy | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 5,21 | 1 | 10 | 8,60 |
Conrad Kaczmarek | 05/28 | Downloaded from | 6,36 | 3 | 9 | 8,63 |
Trey | 05/27 | Downloaded from | 7,36 | 2 | 6 | 8,67 |
Tom Clayton | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 5,36 | 2 | 10 | 8,67 |
Kevin McClernand | 05/30 | Downloaded from | 7,00 | 1 | 7 | 8,67 |
nbadraftinsider | 05/30 | Downloaded from | 5,36 | 3 | 9 | 8,70 |
Matt Moore | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 5,50 | 2 | 11 | 8,73 |
Richard Langford | 06/11 | Downloaded from | 3,93 | 1 | 11 | 8,73 |
David Kay | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 7,64 | 0 | 9 | 8,77 |
Kevin Hanson | 05/24 | Downloaded from | 4,43 | 1 | 7 | 8,77 |
Joe Kotoch | 05/29 | Downloaded from | 4,07 | 2 | 8 | 8,77 |
Allen Moll | 05/27 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 2 | 10 | 8,80 |
Steve | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 4,00 | 0 | 9 | 8,83 |
Andrew Doxy | 06/15 | Downloaded from | 6,43 | 2 | 9 | 8,83 |
nbadraft.net Consensus | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 3,57 | 3 | 8 | 8,87 |
Jason Quint | 06/15 | Downloaded from | 4,43 | 1 | 9 | 8,90 |
Steve Kyler | 06/06 | Downloaded from | 6,64 | 1 | 10 | 9,00 |
Ryan McNeill | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 4,64 | 1 | 8 | 9,03 |
FrankSantos | 06/17 | Downloaded from | 5,00 | 2 | 9 | 9,03 |
probasketballdraft | 05/21 | Downloaded from | 4,07 | 1 | 9 | 9,13 |
Chris Ransom | 05/30 | Downloaded from | 7,93 | 2 | 8 | 9,13 |
Matt Fischer | 06/24 | Downloaded from | 3,43 | 1 | 10 | 9,17 |
Krapinsky | 05/28 | Downloaded from | 5,93 | 1 | 9 | 9,23 |
Aggrey Sam | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 7,21 | 2 | 10 | 9,33 |
gswhoops | 05/30 | Downloaded from | 4,79 | 3 | 7 | 9,33 |
John | 06/09 | Downloaded from | 4,50 | 1 | 9 | 9,40 |
Adam Glanzman | 06/19 | Downloaded from | 7,29 | 1 | 8 | 9,47 |
Tim | 05/26 | Downloaded from | 5,07 | 2 | 10 | 9,60 |
Mike E | 06/05 | Downloaded from | 4,36 | 1 | 10 | 10,07 |
Sports Hound | 06/13 | Downloaded from | 4,93 | 0 | 9 | 10,20 |
Mike Elworth | 05/22 | Downloaded from | 4,36 | 1 | 9 | 10,40 |
Adam Glanzman | 06/02 | Downloaded from | 7,29 | 1 | 9 | 10,47 |
Brandon | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 6,93 | 1 | 9 | 11,00 |
Sports Hound | 05/23 | Downloaded from | 6,57 | 0 | 10 | 11,83 |
DraftSite | 06/22 | Downloaded from | 8,36 | 3 | 10 | 12,97 |
DraftSite | 05/31 | Downloaded from | 5,57 | 3 | 12 | 13,47 |
Congratulations to Jeff Fox from hoopsmanifesto.com!
He not only had the best mock I could find but his mid-June version was in the Top10 too!
But here’s the interesting part: it was simply a crowd-wisdom approach…
The Hoops Manifesto has determined the consensus top 60 prospects for the 2013 NBA Draft. We took the mock drafts from four of the web’s best: DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, NBA Draft Room, and WalterFootball.com, crunched the numbers and came up with our list.
So who should get the credit in this case??
Some other notes about this set of mocks:
Sooooo close to three-peat for David Kay from thesportsbank.net! But this time I’m a little less amazed by his accomplishment because I’m annoyed about his policy of having the same web address for every mock… and his final version, which is visible, was not the best one. Ugh, what a mess. But that’s just me, he should keep up the great work anyway ;-)
Aran Smith from nbadraft.net appears 3 times in the Top10 and each mock was created around week apart so you could argue he had a great sense of talent pool which will be selected… and was just toying with the order, but still, congratulations! But he also had the same page for every mock…
On the other spectrum we have the worst mocks I’ve measured…
but note that all of them were created just after the lottery.
The lesson here is interesting, not only on aggregate mocks improve by 10-20% over 7 days or so, but almost every author who appeared here multiple times actually did improve his score. Do teams know more what they will do as we get closer to the draft so people with mocks has more sense what will happen?
On lighter side, 2013 draft has a chance to be all-time best… in misspelled names.
Kid from Greece alone is HoF-worthy already: I’ve read 7 different versions of his name! They were different even on the same site! But Gorgui, Kentavious, Nogueira, Sergey, Schroeder and Shabazz Muhammad rounded a strong class for possible misspelled names…
OK, that’s it for now, if you have any questions or want some answers about the dataset,
let me know in the comments.
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