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Advanced statistics agreed about those NBA players

26 Jan

Yesterday I explored topic of the biggest differences between perceived value for some NBA players among five advanced statistics and I don’t want to be only negative ;-)
So for a change let’s spotlight those examples where metrics mostly agree, shall we?

Again based on great database prepared by Alex at sportskeptic.wordpress.com and for the last 5 years I ranked each player [with at least 1000 minutes played] according to five different metrics [PER, Win Shares per 48 minutes, Wins Produced per 48, new RAPM and ASPM] and then I calculated standard deviation of each player’s ranking and below you will see only those with the lowest number each year meaning the differences in evaluation between statistics were the smallest.

Again let’s start with the most recent season…

Player in 2010/11 team PER WS48 WP48 RAPM ASPM rPER rWS rWP rRAPM rASPM Std Dev
LeBron James MIA 27.3 0.244 0.27 6.4 6.64 1 1 5 4 1 1.95
Chris Paul NOH 23.7 0.232 0.309 5.8 6.25 6 3 2 6 2 2.05
Dwight Howard ORL 26 0.236 0.301 5.5 5.31 2 2 3 8 6 2.68
Dwyane Wade MIA 25.6 0.218 0.253 5.3 5.37 3 5 9 9 5 2.68
Zach Randolph MEM 22.6 0.185 0.212 2.7 2.48 13 18 18 28 27 6.46
Randy Foye LAC 11.4 0.051 0.018 -2.4 -1.89 209 219 213 202 215 6.47
Nene Hilario DEN 20.4 0.201 0.208 4.6 3.52 25 13 23 11 13 6.48
Lamar Odom LAL 19.4 0.184 0.212 2.7 2.09 32 19 19 29 34 7.16
Sonny Weems TOR 10.2 -0.011 -0.018 -4.1 -3.88 227 245 236 242 243 7.30
Pau Gasol LAL 23.3 0.232 0.234 3 3.58 11 4 15 25 12 7.64
Tim Duncan SAS 21.9 0.171 0.192 4.4 3.11 16 24 33 13 18 7.92
Kevin Garnett BOS 20.6 0.194 0.226 6.5 3.91 24 16 16 3 9 7.96
Paul Pierce BOS 19.7 0.201 0.195 3.7 3.19 30 14 31 18 16 8.07
Manu Ginobili SAS 21.7 0.195 0.204 6.6 3.73 17 15 26 2 11 8.76
Steve Nash PHO 20.8 0.153 0.244 5.8 3.87 22 35 11 7 10 11.55
Austin Daye DET 13 0.07 0.037 -2.1 -1.29 170 187 198 198 195 11.84
Ryan Anderson ORL 19 0.217 0.211 2.3 2.43 37 7 22 35 31 12.28
Elton Brand PHI 18.5 0.161 0.153 2.1 2.02 45 29 62 41 36 12.38
Wayne Ellington MIN 8.6 0.01 -0.014 -2.5 -3.53 241 239 234 209 241 13.61
Grant Hill PHO 14.7 0.087 0.102 -0.5 -0.13 125 157 122 136 125 14.44
Yi Jianlian WAS 10.1 0.016 -0.025 -2.4 -4.53 230 237 238 204 245 15.90

As usual a couple of notes for each recent season…

  • For your information Derrick Rose had 22.42 [Wins Produced and RAPM graded him below Top35]. Interestingly none of the metrics viewed him as a Top3 player but we’ve knew already his MVP had nothing to do with his accomplishment and a lot of to do with hate toward LeBron’s decision… even though he clearly transformed Heat into a strong contender… but he now had some help.
  • Consensus about Zach Randolph’s perceived value is especially interesting in the context of earlier years where he was one of the players at heart of disagreement between metrics. Has he matured? Was it a great fit for him? He is a case to study.
  • According to all 5 metrics Lamar Odom was in the Top35 last season…
    let me guess, he won’t be there this year? ;-)
    What the hell happened with him? Was he a product of a perfect fit into a system?
  • Those statistics not only agree that some players are stars… but that some are just bad. Randy Foye or Wayne Ellington probably shouldn’t receive that many minutes… Also I’m not sure what Mavs saw in Yi Jianlian to sign him and this table is a final straw how strange Sonny Weems’ minutes were last year
Player in 2009/10 team PER WS48 WP48 RAPM ASPM rPER rWS rWP rRAPM rASPM Std Dev
LeBron James CLE 31.1 0.299 0.338 9.8 10.38 1 1 1 1 1 0.00
Dwight Howard ORL 24 0.223 0.293 5 4.98 6 4 3 5 5 1.14
Dwyane Wade MIA 28 0.224 0.257 8.4 7.94 2 3 10 2 2 3.49
Manu Ginobili SAS 22.5 0.216 0.269 3.8 4.19 11 6 7 15 8 3.65
Tim Duncan SAS 24.7 0.215 0.236 4.3 4.56 5 7 15 10 6 4.04
Dahntay Jones IND 10.8 0.045 -0.013 -3.8 -2.34 222 222 229 232 226 4.38
Marc Gasol MEM 19.3 0.164 0.185 2 2.61 32 30 33 42 26 5.90
Steve Nash PHO 21.6 0.178 0.25 5.8 4.45 15 19 12 3 7 6.34
Deron Williams UTA 20.6 0.177 0.211 4.3 3.79 23 21 22 11 10 6.35
Kevin Durant OKC 26.2 0.238 0.219 4.1 5.33 3 2 17 12 4 6.58
Chris Paul NOH 23.7 0.204 0.276 3.4 5.36 7 8 5 21 3 7.09
Jason Richardson PHO 16.6 0.128 0.161 0.7 1.16 71 76 56 74 63 8.34
Josh Smith ATL 21 0.155 0.214 2.7 3.5 20 36 20 30 14 8.83
Al Horford ATL 19.4 0.183 0.194 2.3 2.63 29 13 29 39 24 9.44
Nene Hilario DEN 18.9 0.188 0.19 3.1 3.11 35 11 30 25 18 9.52
Rasual Butler LAC 10.7 0.048 0.022 -1.9 -2.44 224 218 210 202 227 10.26
Chris Douglas-Roberts NJN 11.5 0.02 0.008 -2.5 -2.79 212 238 220 220 234 10.83
Al Thornton LAC 11.6 0.05 0.02 -3.8 -2.69 208 215 213 231 232 10.99
Ryan Hollins MIN 11 0.048 -0.063 -4.5 -3.12 219 217 241 238 237 11.44
Trenton Hassell NJN 6.5 -0.003 0.019 -4.8 -4.19 243 242 215 239 243 12.07
Andrew Bogut MIL 20.7 0.161 0.178 4.5 2.91 21 32 40 7 20 12.59
Andrei Kirilenko UTA 18.2 0.171 0.247 2.4 2.78 46 25 13 38 22 13.14
Terrence Williams NJN 11.5 -0.007 -0.006 -2.3 -3.37 213 243 227 217 240 13.38
Gerald Wallace CHA 18.3 0.177 0.236 1.7 2.77 40 22 16 48 23 13.54
Paul Millsap UTA 16.7 0.151 0.155 2.5 1.42 70 41 58 36 49 13.59
Kevin Garnett BOS 19.4 0.171 0.172 4.5 2.58 30 24 47 8 27 13.95
Paul Pierce BOS 18.2 0.165 0.149 1.5 1.97 42 28 64 51 35 14.05
Chase Budinger HOU 14.1 0.1 0.1 -0.8 -0.65 129 133 126 151 158 14.22
Goran Dragic PHO 14.8 0.094 0.088 -0.6 -0.64 119 149 145 141 157 14.25
Willie Green PHI 12.8 0.067 0.039 -2.1 -1.9 181 190 198 209 217 14.40
  • THAT’s the way you win MVP ;-) LeBron was #1 across the board and after those two tables it seems obvious to me that discussions “who is the best player in the league” should be really short…
  • Pacers play well this season and they have a ton of cap space in the next offseason… so I hope they will spend it better than with Dahntay Jones…
  • In 2010 it was obvious that Rasual Butler or Al Thornton shouldn’t play big minutes in the NBA… second one is out of the league now but Rasual somehow started THIS YEAR?! What?!
  • It’s a shame that Andrei Kirilenko got injured during lockout because he really could help someone… and maybe he will next year.
Player in 2008/09 team PER WS48 WP48 RAPM ASPM rPER rWS rWP rRAPM rASPM Std Dev
LeBron James CLE 31.7 0.318 0.344 9.3 10.24 1 1 2 1 2 0.55
Dwyane Wade MIA 30.4 0.232 0.28 6.4 9.74 2 4 5 4 3 1.14
Chris Paul NOH 30 0.292 0.373 5.8 12.56 3 2 1 6 1 2.07
Darrell Arthur MEM 11.3 0.055 0.033 -2 -1.86 209 213 209 209 213 2.19
Kevin Garnett BOS 21.2 0.193 0.23 7.4 4.33 18 11 15 2 8 6.22
Mike James WAS 9.9 -0.003 -0.028 -3.2 -3.4 231 244 241 231 244 6.69
Pau Gasol LAL 22.2 0.223 0.242 3.1 3.3 14 6 11 25 14 6.96
Brandon Roy POR 24 0.223 0.225 3.5 4.44 7 5 18 20 7 7.02
Dwight Howard ORL 25.4 0.234 0.3 3.4 4.84 4 3 3 21 6 7.70
Matt Barnes PHO 12.6 0.069 0.06 -1.4 -1.01 182 192 179 188 171 8.14
Paul Millsap UTA 18.6 0.162 0.211 2.4 1.91 46 33 24 44 39 8.93
Willie Green PHI 11.1 0.06 0.013 -2.1 -1.43 211 204 223 213 198 9.47
Antoine Wright DAL 8.6 0.044 -0.014 -2.7 -2 242 225 235 223 217 9.99
Jason Kapono TOR 8.9 0.021 -0.012 -2.4 -3.24 240 239 232 217 241 10.03
Manu Ginobili SAS 22.9 0.203 0.264 2.8 4.08 11 9 8 35 11 11.37
Yi Jianlian NJN 10.9 0.024 -0.025 -2.5 -3.02 212 236 239 221 236 11.73
Chauncey Billups DEN 18.8 0.176 0.179 3.2 1.69 38 19 40 24 48 11.97
Tracy McGrady HOU 16.3 0.108 0.123 0.9 0.9 91 110 92 82 78 12.36
Michael Redd MIL 17.9 0.128 0.135 2.4 1.27 55 74 73 45 67 12.50
George Hill SAS 11.6 0.08 0.046 -1.3 -1.44 205 175 193 179 199 12.85
Daequan Cook MIA 10.3 0.056 0.02 -1.9 -3.31 224 211 219 207 242 13.69
Nene Hilario DEN 18.8 0.177 0.165 3 2.49 39 18 53 29 24 13.76
Brandon Rush IND 9 0.024 0.035 -3.4 -3.21 238 237 206 235 240 14.20
Tim Duncan SAS 24.4 0.191 0.177 3.9 3.7 6 14 43 14 12 14.46
Kobe Bryant LAL 24.4 0.206 0.182 6.1 4.99 5 8 38 5 5 14.48
Ryan Gomes MIN 12.5 0.046 0.026 -2 -1.55 183 222 215 210 201 15.06
Nate Robinson NYK 18.9 0.128 0.135 1.4 1.53 36 73 72 69 60 15.41
Andre Iguodala PHI 18.4 0.134 0.169 3.1 1.91 47 68 49 26 38 15.47
  • Can we please have a minute of silence for Brandon Roy’s career? Top20 across the board! I have no idea how can you spin this positively…
  • I truly don’t understand why teams sign players like Mike James, Willie Green, Antoine Wright. Even for a minimum it doesn’t make much sense to me, we already know they aren’t good and they are old so there’s only downside. Are they professional in the locker room or what? Wouldn’t a team be better with top youngster from the D-League?
  • Paul Millsap’s explosion this season has caught some attention in the media… but “Millsap plays really well” is actually an old news…
Player in 2007/08 team PER WS48 WP48 RAPM ASPM rPER rWS rWP rRAPM rASPM Std Dev
Kevin Garnett BOS 25.3 0.265 0.298 8.1 6.42 4 2 3 1 3 1.14
Manu Ginobili SAS 24.3 0.232 0.286 6.5 5.3 7 6 6 2 4 2.00
Dwight Howard ORL 22.9 0.2 0.256 3.3 3.21 11 13 14 18 18 3.11
Chauncey Billups DET 23.6 0.257 0.287 3.9 4.71 10 4 5 12 7 3.36
LeBron James CLE 29.1 0.242 0.257 6.2 7.99 1 5 11 5 2 3.90
Jeff Green SEA 9.8 0.003 -0.042 -3.9 -3.27 236 243 240 232 238 4.15
Shawn Marion PHO 20 0.181 0.253 3.1 4.11 27 19 16 21 10 6.27
Tim Duncan SAS 24.4 0.201 0.233 6.3 4.43 6 11 22 4 9 7.02
Steve Nash PHO 21.1 0.181 0.253 6.3 2.97 18 18 15 3 22 7.26
Jeff McInnis CHA 6.5 0.002 -0.003 -4.8 -3.84 247 245 228 242 242 7.46
Royal Ivey MIL 8.8 0.018 -0.025 -3.1 -3.29 238 237 233 220 239 7.83
Daequan Cook MIA 7.9 -0.013 -0.052 -3.5 -4.5 242 247 242 226 247 8.64
Bobby Simmons MIL 10.3 0.022 -0.001 -2.7 -2.97 233 233 227 212 234 9.26
Johan Petro SEA 10 0.014 -0.068 -3.2 -4.04 235 239 244 221 245 9.71
Kirk Hinrich CHI 13.1 0.072 0.07 -1.1 -0.9 161 180 170 154 164 9.81
Kobe Bryant LAL 24.2 0.208 0.194 6.1 5.24 8 9 30 6 5 10.41
Chris Paul NOH 28.3 0.284 0.352 3 10.67 2 1 1 25 1 10.63
Paul Pierce BOS 19.6 0.207 0.195 5.4 3.54 31 10 29 8 16 10.66
Kareem Rush IND 10 0.033 0.023 -2.7 -2.4 234 224 207 211 220 10.71
Jason Kidd DAL 18.4 0.157 0.236 3 3.11 44 35 18 26 19 11.06
Antoine Wright NJN 8.3 0.025 0.012 -4.7 -2.59 241 231 214 240 226 11.10
Yi Jianlian MIL 11.3 0.022 -0.016 -2.9 -3.56 214 232 231 217 241 11.25
Jason Terry DAL 17.8 0.16 0.153 2 2.11 56 32 61 44 40 11.82
Matt Barnes GSW 12.9 0.077 0.082 -2 -0.94 165 172 154 187 167 12.02
Martell Webster POR 12 0.079 0.069 -1.6 -0.94 195 167 171 170 166 12.03
Corey Brewer MIN 8.3 -0.005 0.001 -2.9 -2.8 240 246 224 216 231 12.03
Larry Hughes CLE 11.6 0.042 0.001 -3.1 -1.41 202 212 223 219 193 12.32
Juan Carlos Navarro MEM 11.9 0.031 0.04 -2.4 -2.24 196 225 197 206 216 12.47
Richard Hamilton DET 18.2 0.152 0.146 1.5 2.27 50 41 68 53 35 12.62
Jordan Farmar LAL 15.4 0.111 0.119 -0.4 0.39 110 106 94 126 97 12.64
Damien Wilkins SEA 11.3 0.027 0 -6 -2.03 215 229 226 244 212 12.72
Rasho Nesterovic TOR 16.1 0.125 0.106 0.2 0.11 88 88 116 98 110 12.73
Grant Hill PHO 15.7 0.127 0.14 0.1 0.87 100 82 74 104 80 13.19
Randy Foye MIN 12.7 0.042 0.024 -2.2 -1.71 174 210 206 196 199 14.00
Andris Biedrins GSW 19.2 0.185 0.269 2.1 2.19 34 16 8 42 36 14.46
Mark Blount MIA 11.4 0.021 -0.076 -4 -4.18 210 235 245 234 246 14.51
Allen Iverson DEN 20.9 0.163 0.156 3.1 2.3 20 30 57 22 34 14.79
Ricky Davis MIA 12 0.03 0.035 -3.6 -1.92 191 226 204 227 208 15.32
Carlos Boozer UTA 21.9 0.173 0.16 2.6 3.55 15 24 52 31 14 15.51
Caron Butler WAS 20.7 0.15 0.181 1.4 3.05 22 43 39 58 20 15.76
Matt Harpring UTA 14.1 0.096 0.074 -1.3 -1.07 140 138 163 160 175 15.83
Nick Young WAS 11.6 0.017 -0.059 -4.5 -3.18 204 238 243 239 237 15.93

Andris Biedrins and Allen Iverson were really good at some point? Those were the days… ;-)

Also Nick Young is still with the Wizards and he plays a lot of minutes!
Yeah, they clearly have a problem with coach and not in the management…

Player in 2006/07 team PER WS48 WP48 RAPM ASPM rPER rWS rWP rRAPM rASPM Std Dev
Tim Duncan SAS 26.1 0.23 0.268 8.8 5.56 5 3 8 1 4 2.59
Manu Ginobili SAS 24.1 0.246 0.282 7.2 5.28 9 2 5 3 7 2.86
Steve Nash PHO 23.8 0.225 0.318 6.3 5.54 12 4 2 5 5 3.78
Jarvis Hayes WAS 10.7 0.045 0.003 -3.8 -2.53 231 231 234 243 238 5.13
Elton Brand LAC 23.1 0.18 0.205 3.5 3.33 14 18 28 21 17 5.32
Dirk Nowitzki DAL 27.6 0.278 0.239 6.2 5.89 2 1 16 6 2 6.23
Dwyane Wade MIA 28.9 0.219 0.237 4.9 8.75 1 6 19 9 1 7.43
Chauncey Billups DET 21.3 0.216 0.233 4.3 3.13 26 7 21 12 21 7.70
Shawn Marion PHO 20.8 0.191 0.265 4.5 4.01 29 13 9 11 11 8.17
Jason Terry DAL 18.9 0.182 0.196 2.8 2.49 41 17 34 32 34 8.85
Dwight Howard ORL 21.1 0.154 0.234 2.5 2.58 27 38 20 43 30 9.07
Josh Howard DAL 20 0.173 0.171 3 2.74 34 25 48 27 27 9.47
Ronald Murray DET 10.8 0.042 0.03 -1.7 -1.87 226 236 222 209 218 9.96
Antonio McDyess DET 18.1 0.168 0.193 2.5 1.91 56 28 36 44 44 10.43
Kevin Garnett MIN 24.1 0.171 0.204 7 3.96 8 26 29 4 13 11.02
Desmond Mason NOK 10.8 0.011 -0.018 -3 -2.86 228 256 244 232 245 11.18
Willie Green PHI 10.3 -0.018 -0.111 -3.4 -2.98 235 259 260 239 247 11.36
Gary Payton MIA 9 0.042 0.032 -4.1 -2.67 248 238 220 248 242 11.54
Luol Deng CHI 18.7 0.176 0.2 4.3 2.54 44 22 31 13 32 11.63
Marcus Camby DEN 19.1 0.155 0.254 3.1 3.25 39 37 11 24 19 11.92
LeBron James CLE 24.5 0.206 0.196 7.3 5.35 6 8 33 2 6 12.49
Rashard Lewis SEA 20.7 0.155 0.149 2.1 2.21 30 36 66 54 38 14.81
Rodney Carney PHI 11.4 0.055 -0.026 -3.3 -3.05 216 220 247 236 249 15.14
Charlie Bell MIL 13.1 0.068 0.056 -1.1 -0.74 174 204 192 179 165 15.35
Nene Hilario DEN 17.8 0.148 0.156 2.6 1 61 47 62 40 80 15.44
Jason Kidd NJN 19.4 0.152 0.297 3.8 2.4 38 40 4 17 36 15.81
Devin Brown NOK 14.3 0.102 0.117 -0.4 -0.05 134 129 103 144 117 15.85

To sum up, here are the players who made a top list the most times…
Dwight Howard [5 times]
Kevin Garnett [5]
LeBron James [5]
Manu Ginobili [5]
Tim Duncan [5]
Chris Paul [4 times]
Dwyane Wade [4]
Nene Hilario [4]
Steve Nash [4]
Chauncey Billups [3]
Paul Pierce [3]
Willie Green [3]
Yi Jianlian [3]

So I think the moral of this story is clear, advanced statistics can agree about efficient and multidimensional stars… and that some players should NOT play a lot of minutes ;-)

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5 Comments

Posted by on January 26, 2012 in Expanding Horizons

 

Tags: , , , , ,

5 responses to “Advanced statistics agreed about those NBA players

  1. Daniel M (@DSMok1)

    January 26, 2012 at 17:29

    Excellent work on these two posts!

     
    • wiLQ

      January 26, 2012 at 17:37

      Thanks!
      Though I think most of the credit should go to Alex for preparing the data.

       
  2. James Brocato

    January 26, 2012 at 19:47

    Good stuff wiLQ. Interesting that in 2008 CP3 was top 2 in every metric but RAPM where he was #25.

     

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