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Daily Archives: November 10, 2011

How many Games will be Played in 2011/12 Season?

NBA has already canceled games through November… but what exactly does it mean? Schedule has to change anyway so the most important question is this: how many games can we still have?
Obviously even both sides might not know this now because they are still negotiating about more fundamental things but I think we can easily estimate how it can play out. Let’s start with some facts.

Here’s what happened in a previous shortened season and, for a comparison sake, in the last two years.

Season Days in the Regular Part Games Played Average Games
per Week
Days in the Playoffs Max Games Average Games
per Week
1998-99 89 50 3,93 48 20 2,92
2009-10 169 83 3,43 61 24 2,75
2010-11 169 83 3,43 57 21 2,58

FYI, 83rd game is an All-Star Game. I think it’s a good place to set a minimum [3,43] and a maximum [3,93] for a possible contests per week because obviously games won’t be played less often than in a normal season and for the love of… players they shouldn’t be more packed than in 1999.

So how many games we can expect in a wildly optimistic scenario?
It means they would have to agree today or tomorrow so regular season would have to start on Dec 7th and end on May 3rd while playoffs would start on May 5th and end on June 23rd:

Season Days in the Regular Part Games Played Average Games
per Week
Days in the Playoffs Max Games Average Games
per Week
Version1 148 83,09 3,93 49 28 4,00
Version1 148 82,03 3,88 49 27 3,86
Version1 148 80,98 3,83 49 26 3,71
Version1 148 79,92 3,78 49 25 3,57
Version1 148 78,86 3,73 49 24 3,43
Version1 148 77,81 3,68 49 23 3,29
Version1 148 76,75 3,63 49 22 3,14
Version1 148 75,69 3,58 49 21 3,00
Version1 148 74,63 3,53 49 20 2,86
Version1 148 73,58 3,48 49 19 2,71
Version1 148 72,52 3,43 49 18 2,57

I have to admit that I’m surprised that 82 games are still theoretically possible. Obviously it would be an assassination attempt at player’s knees, ankles etc but if they really want all their paychecks…
they would have to create some more available dates in the arenas.
With that information it makes sense that NBA announced season with 82 games isn’t possible.

So let’s focus on slightly optimistic scenario where we assume that regular season would start on Dec 15th and end on April 30th while playoffs would start on May 3rd and end on June 21st:
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Posted by on November 10, 2011 in Unanswered Questions

 

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