Real questions about fake mailbag

21 May

In his fake mailbag Ian Thomsen touched on two topics which generated some questions for me:
Clippers’ pick which won 2011 draft lottery and Point Guards in last drafts.

About the former he wrote:

“Why does everyone assume we screwed up? The only way we were going to get out from under Baron Davis’ contract was to include our No. 1 pick without lottery protection.”
— N.O., Los Angeles
The reason you can’t win the argument is because the story fits so neatly into the deplorable history of your franchise. It’s part of the self-fulfilling Clippers trend, the latest in a long list of mishaps. The more you protest, the more you’ll be accused of protesting too much. I guarantee that if Irving turns into a star years from now, the boiled-down story will be that the Clippers messed up once again. I’m certain it’s far more complicated and nuanced than that, but you’re fighting a legend of misfortune that just this week grew more legendary. In the market of public opinion, this is one that you can’t win.

Here’s my question: should we change our evaluation because of an unlikely outcome?

Yes, that was really ironic event but let’s review it…
Clippers essentially made a bet: 30M$ [Baron’s remaining salary] on 90% chance that their pick will be outside Top3. They lost that bet… but those were really good odds and they should have taken them, right?
Yes, theoretically they could have protected that pick… but that was the whole point of the trade for Cavs!
At least in my honest opinion…

Ian Thomsen also wrote:

By the way, Irving should be your default choice. Investing in a point guard is the surest thing these days.[…]
Point guards who have been drafted No. 1. If Kyrie Irving goes to Cleveland, as expected, it will be the third time in four years that the top pick was a point guard. It makes sense today, given the changes in rules that have liberated explosive athletes on the perimeter.

He obviously haven’t read Is The NBA a Point-Guard dominated league? by that time but still…

Here’s the list of point guards drafted in the lottery in last 4 drafts: John Wall, Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings, Derrick Rose, D.J. Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Mike Conley, Acie Law. We could also add Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook although they are probably better suited for SG.

One could argue that’s a good average on this position… and that’s fine but here’s my question: if they are so valuable why they were drafted at this rate [9/56, 13/56 if we include pseudo PGs]? IMHO it’s simply a testament to the talent of individuals like Rose or Wall not a proof of changes in regard to the whole position!

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Posted by on May 21, 2011 in Expanding Horizons


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