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Accuracy of NBA Mock Drafts in 2012, Best, Worst

NBA Draft 2012 is in the books so it’s time for a lot of grading… no, I don’t mean judging teams or drafted players because it’s too early but there’s one draft-related topic which doesn’t require waiting few years:
Who Had The Best and Worst 2012 Mock Drafts on the Internet?

After humble beginnings last season I expanded my efforts to 122 NBA Mock Drafts this year.
Obviously, it doesn’t mean I covered every mock available on the web but I think I was close ;-)

Seriously speaking though here’s what I did:
1) after the draft lottery I saved on my hard drive pages from as many 1st round mocks as I could quickly gather. Mostly from widely known authors/sources but I also added many googled ones.
I repeated this exercise weekly up to the day before actual NBA Draft when I had a final push for the data.

There are two important notes here:
a) because I tried to capture content which was quickly changing some of the links provided won’t work. The most extreme example was probably with Chad Ford from ESPN who published 10 mock drafts and the last 3 or 4 had multiple “updates” which by the way block the entry to original versions.
I could just upload those saved files but that probably wouldn’t be legal so I just posted a PDF file with every pick of every mock I’ve processed.
b) I included 3 mocks from the day of the draft from [my guess at] 3 most popular sources but I don’t feel great about it. On a draft day rumors from teams, possible leaks and updates are so rampant that I question the value of those mocks for 10 minutes… especially when at this point you can just wait for the real event.

2) I graded every mock by an average absolute difference between the mocked and actual picks
For example Bradley Beal was drafted third so if you had him at #2 you would get a score of “1″ but if you had him at #5 you would get a score of “2″. Got it? If a player went undrafted I counted that as a “30″ because of the entire second round. I did the aforementioned thing for every pick in every mock and calculate an average for the entire first round so the lower the number the more accurate mock was.

OK, let the mock draft challenge begin! Here are the results…
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Posted by on July 4, 2012 in Expanding Horizons

 

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Fantasy NBA Why Snake Draft is Unfair in Basketball

Whenever you’ve just started playing fantasy NBA or consider some offseason alternatives like fantasy all-time draft one of the first questions you need to ponder is: “how are we going to redistribute players between teams”? And one of the most common answers to this question is “Snake Draft”.

It’s a draft where the positions flip flop every round. For example, if someone drafts first during the very first round, they’ll draft last the following round, then they’ll draft first again in the next round, and so on. This type of draft is the most fair.

This concept is easy to grasp, it was always easy to organize and it just sounds so fair. Well, there’s only one problem with it: in fantasy NBA snake draft is unfair! And it’s not even close to being fair!

How do I know this? Not only it’s essentially the same problem as with competitive balance in the NBA but more importantly we can easily calculate why and how is it unfair.

I’ll use Yahoo’s Default Points Scoring [FGA (-0.45), FGM (1.0), FTA (-0.75), FTM (1.0), 3-pt Made (3.0), Point Scored (0.5), Rebound (1.5), Assist (2.0), Steal (3.0), Turnover (-2.0), Blocked Shot (3.0)] as an example but it really doesn’t matter, you can repeat this exercise for every possible settings with the same results.

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Posted by on November 30, 2011 in Fantasy for Real

 

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Fantasy Basketball All-Time Draft – Possible Rules

Whenever you want to compare the greatest players in the history or you just want to play fantasy basketball without any current games in the NBA [like during lockout...], all-time fantasy draft is a way to go.

Let me start this topic by addressing two main concerns about this game…
[if you don't have any or you are ready to roll do yourself a favour and scroll down one page].

“Isn’t it too predictable since we know everything about the past?”.

I agree it could be a concern but there are four strong counter-arguments:

1) Even if we assume we know everything about retired players, there always will be a gray area because of the differences between eras.
For example, would Bill Russell belong to all-time greats if he played against today’s athletes?
Would fringe NBA player from the 90s dominate in the late 50s? How many stars would be out of the league in a different era when their best skills were considered less valuable? Etc.

2) Even though we have easily available statistics from the past it’s not obvious how to interpret them.
Simple example: Dennis Rodman. Was he one of the all-time greats or merely lucky and good role-player?
How changes in the NBA rules over time would affect players’ past accomplishments?
Would Steve Nash have a great and long career [with two MVP awards] if he was drafted in the 1990 or is he a product of changes in hand-check rules? How many rebounds per game would Wilt Chamberlain have in today’s NBA with different approach to the game’s pace and defence? Etc.

3) You don’t know what other managers will do in such draft.
That’s a key element of uncertainty in this game. Even if you choose only 100 players eligible to be drafted it creates enormous possibilities for creative roster management. Keep in mind that if you have obvious strategy, opponents can quickly see through it and react accordingly.

4) With a simple tweaks you can greatly improve uncertainty [more specifics on that below].

“How can you possibly do it more than once?
Isn’t it by definition very repetitive exercise?”

That’s a possibility… but only if you play over and over by the same rules.
One simple change in them can significantly alter your draft strategy! For example, you can add a rule “you have to draft someone from [enter different decade or team] at least 2/3/4/etc times”. That change alone creates many unique draft scenarios. What’s more, you can also limit available pool of players, for example by excluding obvious choices like Jordan or MVPs, or All-Stars, or players in their prime or players under 6-5… you get the idea. Possibilities are limitless.

I have no idea whenever those changes would allow you to have fun but that really depends on your preferences and it’s not because game’s rules are too obvious and too limited.

With all that in mind here are possible rules for fantasy basketball All-Time Draft

Head-to-head imaginary games.

How can it work: you draft a team and then debate with other GMs why it would be the best one and/or why it would win all it’s matchups. You can create as many rounds as you wish. After that judges [which could mean "other GMs in this league"] vote which case seems the most convincing. It’s probably the most common version played of all-time draft and examples can be found on RealGM, multiple times actually and other places.

IMHO key features: It generates a LOT of discussions, arguments and additional research. I mean A LOT!
It’s also the only option for people who don’t like using statistics as an argument or as a deciding factor.
IMHO key bugs: You need a LOT of time to do it. Your debating skills may be more important than your team. Almost every unconventional idea is either doomed or at a clear disadvantage because of a voting process.

Classic rotisserie scoring, 1 season.

How can it work: You draft one season of any players in the history and after rosters are completed you sum all their statistics by standard rotisserie scoring to determine the winner.
One possible tweak is to draft players and then draft his seasons between those who drafted the same player.

IMHO key features: Simplicity. Probably the best option for fantasy beginners or just to warm up.
Creates many questions you wouldn’t even consider otherwise [how would Olajuwon defend Olajuwon?].
Also if everyone can have their own Jordan’s season isn’t it ultimately fair?
IMHO key bugs: strange feeling of having the same players on many teams.
Usually very limited number of players used. Mess if you want to consider defense.

Rotisserie scoring, 1 season, every player only once in the league.

How can it work: You draft one season of any players in the history but once player is drafted his whole career is off the board and his other season can’t be drafted. In the end you sum all their statistics by standard rotisserie scoring to determine the winner.

IMHO key features: The most similar system to the standard non-keeper fantasy draft.
Very easy to calculate and probably requires the least amount of time.
IMHO key bugs: first few picks in this draft are way better than those at the end of first round so either you have cut players at the top out of the pool or you have to balance this by additional changes in the draft order.

Rotisserie or fantasy points scoring, careers and random season.

How can it work: You draft player’s career and then you have randomly assigned one of his seasons.
In the end you sum all players’ stats by standard rotisserie or fantasy points scoring to determine the winner.

IMHO key features: creates an unique perspective and choices regarding players’ careers.
For example, do you prefer short career where greatness is mixed in with some duds or merely good career but very consistent one? Do you prefer a risk of having one very bad season or 50% chance of average one?
Additionally thanks to a layer of randomness it’s probably the best option if you don’t like rotisserie scoring and prefer simple fantasy points system.
IMHO key bugs: active players have an advantage over retired ones because they haven’t played those end of the road seasons yet. But obviously you can limit how many of them can be drafted by one team.

Rotisserie or Head-to-head, 1 season, random games.

How can it work: You draft one season of any player in the history and after the draft you randomly choose single games from given season [it can be 10 games, it can be 41, it mostly depends on "how much randomness do you want to apply and how much time do you want to spend on it"]. In the end you sum all players’ statistics by standard rotisserie or head-to-head scoring to determine the winner.

IMHO key features: Probably the best way to play head-to-head matchups.
The most efficient way to account for injuries and to generate uncertainty.
IMHO key bugs: it can’t be a full all-time draft because we have easily available data only since 1986.
Also it’s probably the most time-consuming option.

Do you have any other idea how such all-time draft can be done?

If the answer is yes, please let me know in the comments.

If you would like to participate in such draft I recommend RealGM forum [for option with descriptions] and
I could gladly organize any other game on this blog so let me know if you are interested ;-)

 
2 Comments

Posted by on November 21, 2011 in Fantasy for Real

 

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Brainstorming Ideas for New CBA in the NBA

I have no illusion that anyone can “solve” NBA lockout mostly because IMHO lockout is not about “fair shares” or “equal partners” or anything like that but it’s a negotiating tactic in a battle of wills.
It’s like two people pulling rope in an opposite direction, there’s no right or wrong there, it’s simply about which one of them is stronger and/or better skilled etc.
So I write this post simply as a way to present [and hopefully discuss] some CBA-related ideas…

Tackling NCAA vs NBA puzzle

NBA’s “solution” is simply to raise the age limit to enter NBA draft which IMHO is ridiculous on many levels but I shouldn’t commit the sin of attacking someone’s ideas without offering alternatives of my own so…
Everyone after high-school [or 18 years old] can enter NBA draft but with this wrinkle:
if they are drafted their new team can assign them to NBDL with max salary set for example at 50-150k$ per year range [depending on draft position] and paid by NBA team. This situation can last up to 3 years and every season in NCAA would shorten that max by one year. If a player is called up from NBDL to NBA his salary becomes typical rookie scale contract and it can’t be lowered again to previous value.
So to sum up, players could earn money playing basketball in the USA right after high-school but it wouldn’t hurt NBA teams financially and there would be a very strong incentive to stay in the NCAA if someone was not ready to contribute in the NBA right away.

Which side would be screwed in this scenario?

Seriously, Why Team’s Prices aren’t a Factor in this CBA?

Even though I wrote about this topic on July 6 thanks to a very informative interview with economist Rodney Fort on Wages of Wins I think I finally put a finger on two things: what’s technically wrong with Roster Depreciation Allowance from player’s point of view even though it’s perfectly legal procedure and how to easily fix it.

From league’s financial point of view every change of ownership creates huge losses and zero revenues.
The first part is understandable for everyone involved [again, I highly recommend that podcast] but I think the second part should be under heavy attack from NBPA. Why? Thanks to league’s growth and/or player’s actions someone earned hundreds of millions and league have nothing to show for it? What?
What’s more, EVERY change of ownership is actually hurtful to player’s bottom line? Again, whaaaat?!

You can find all those ownership changes here but I think this one couldn’t be more fitting:
in 2001 Howard Schultz bought a majority of Seattle SuperSonics for around 250M$ [adjusted for inflation].
5 years later [not a coincidence by the way, before 2004 RDA could be used for 5 years!] he sold it to Clay Bennett for around 380M$ [again adjusted for the inflation].
Here’s the catch: in the NBA books you probably could find both of those prices as a cost spread out over longer period and you couldn’t find anything about really impressive profit earned on this change of hands!

As far as I know every such transaction in the NBA has to be approved by them…
so why not create a 10-25% tax from every such transfer and put it into the BRI?
Shouldn’t NBPA fight over that and not over every percentage point of BRI?
Especially when you consider information like this tweet from Larry Coon: my guys have boiled it down to a formula — X points in BRI means $Y increase in average franchise value.

Owner’s incentives to increase team’s revenue

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Posted by on November 7, 2011 in Unanswered Questions

 

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Why Almost Every NBA Team had a Good Draft?

From accuracy of mock drafts I’ll jump right into another draft-related topic which IMHO should be done every year just as a reminder: How is it Possible that Almost Every Team’s Draft Grades as Above-Average?!

Seriously, check out this mostly random list:

Link to a 2011 Draft Grades around the Web Teams graded
below average
Inc.
sam_amick/06/24/draft.grades/index.html 0! 1
http://insider.espn.go.com[...]columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftGrades-110624 0! 1
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/745189-2011-nba-draft-grades 0! 3
http://www.nbadraft.net/2011-nba-draft-grades 1 1
ball_dont_lie/post/Ball-Don-t-Lie-s-2011-NBA-draft-grades 4 0
http://basketball.realgm.com/article/214377/Grading_The_Draft_2011_Edition 4 0
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/15260158 8 0

What’s wrong with this picture?
Historically we know that most of 1st round picks won’t pan out… and what’s even more puzzling this was supposed to be a weak draft which should produce more than usual number of bad performers!

And it’s not like that’s a new problem, here’s a list for last year’s draft:

Link to a 2010 Draft Grades around the Web Teams graded
below average
Inc.
chris_mannix/06/24/draft.grades/index.html 0! 4
http://www.nbadraft.net/2010-nba-draft-grades 1 1
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/2010-nba-draft-grades-for-every-team 2 4
ball_dont_lie/post/Grading-the-NBA-draft?urn=nba-251378 5 0

So could someone explain to me what’s the point of those very top heavy grading scales?
Pretty please?

Does generous grading generate more traffic? If so then why?

Is it not fun to read that your team has screwed up? Well, most of them did it so you can at least prepare for it.

Is it only a comparison to author’s expectations? Then why those expectations are so unrealistically high?

Is it hard to predict future of those players? Well, then what’s the point of those grades again?

Look, I understand that draft is in the books and writers have to write something about it, but why do they have to shatter grading scale and widely known fact in the process?
Especially when it can be done without it by simply mentioning only those worth mentioning and even though I don’t agree with those grades at least there’s some nice [and more importantly realistic] balance there.

What do you think about all of it?

 
10 Comments

Posted by on June 27, 2011 in Unanswered Questions

 

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Watching The Watchers – The Best NBA Mock Drafts

NBA Draft 2011 didn’t disappoint in terms of providing entertainment with interesting decisions, picks and trades but it’s over so it’s time for some conclusions… no, I don’t mean judging teams or drafted players with special grading scales [where almost all teams were above average!] but to answer a question which doesn’t require waiting few years: Who Had The Best and Worst 2011 Mock Drafts on the Internet?
(You can also check expanded version for 2012 NBA Mock Drafts!

Obviously, I couldn’t cover every mock available on the web but here’s what I did:
1) 12 hours before NBA Draft I saved on my hard drive pages from as many latest 1st round mocks as possible. Mostly from widely known authors/sources but I also added some random googled ones.
For more fun and information I also added older versions.
2) I graded every mock by an average absolute difference between the mocked and actual picks.
For example Derrick Williams was drafted at #2 so if you had him at #1 you would get a score of “1″ but if you had him at #5 you would get a score of “3″. Got it? If a player went undrafted I counted that as a “30″ because of the entire second round. I did the aforementioned thing for every pick in every mock and calculate an average for the entire first round so the lower the number the more accurate mock was.

BTW, if you are interested what’s the score for YOUR mock draft let me know in the comments.
Although there better be some kind of valid information about a date.
It won’t be fun to judge mock which has been written after real draft ;-)

OK, let the mock draft challenge begin! Here are the results… (Number before name means “earlier version”):
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Posted by on June 24, 2011 in Expanding Horizons

 

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How to Easily Spot Tanking & Upside of Weak Drafts

You probably have heard that in 2011 there will be a really weak NBA draft.
You also probably have heard about incentive to lose in the NBA, or in simpler word tanking.
It’s a well known phenomenon among observers of this league and yet IMHO two huge points are missing from this discussion. I’ll explain first one today and next one will be in tomorrow’s post.

But first, let’s start with the basics…
My assumption was that in the first 2-3 months of the season teams play up to their true abilities to win games because the possibility of reaching playoffs isn’t out of the question yet but when it’s not going well it creates an incentive to lose more and more games to improve team’s draft pick.

So for the Last 20 Full Seasons I picked 10 Teams Each Year which were the farthest away from playoffs [*], compared it’s wins in the first half of the season to wins in the second half and then sum them up for the whole year. It’s a very simple measure so any kind of discrepancy doesn’t have to mean “tanking” – it can be caused by a lack of luck in the close games or changes in the roster or injuries etc. That’s why I’ve examined every difference bigger than 5 games either way.

[*] – usually it meant simply the worst teams record-wise but in some cases there were ties for 10th or 10th worst team actually qualified for the playoffs.

Obviously, that idea has its flaws, for example:

  • it doesn’t include teams which were tanking the whole season so I’ve checked every really bad records,
  • it doesn’t include differences in schedule which could be an explanation in some cases,
  • I assumed the same motive for every team – to improve draft odds – but in some cases, like Timberwolves in 2006/07, there was different one: they sold their pick to the Clippers, which was Top10 protected, so they had to be sure it will be in the Top10. I couldn’t chart fate of every pick like that,
  • We are talking here about 20 years and around 200 teams so it’s possible that I’ve missed some changes, injuries etc. In those cases please let me know in the comments.

OK, that’s enough for the intro, here are the results…
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Posted by on June 22, 2011 in Scrutiny

 

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