Accuracy of NBA Mock Drafts in 2012, Best, Worst

NBA Draft 2012 is in the books so it’s time for a lot of grading… no, I don’t mean judging teams or drafted players because it’s too early but there’s one draft-related topic which doesn’t require waiting few years:
Who Had The Best and Worst 2012 Mock Drafts on the Internet?

After humble beginnings last season I expanded my efforts to 122 NBA Mock Drafts this year.
Obviously, it doesn’t mean I covered every mock available on the web but I think I was close ;-)

Seriously speaking though here’s what I did:
1) after the draft lottery I saved on my hard drive pages from as many 1st round mocks as I could quickly gather. Mostly from widely known authors/sources but I also added many googled ones.
I repeated this exercise weekly up to the day before actual NBA Draft when I had a final push for the data.

There are two important notes here:
a) because I tried to capture content which was quickly changing some of the links provided won’t work. The most extreme example was probably with Chad Ford from ESPN who published 10 mock drafts and the last 3 or 4 had multiple “updates” which by the way block the entry to original versions.
I could just upload those saved files but that probably wouldn’t be legal so I just posted a PDF file with every pick of every mock I’ve processed.
b) I included 3 mocks from the day of the draft from [my guess at] 3 most popular sources but I don’t feel great about it. On a draft day rumors from teams, possible leaks and updates are so rampant that I question the value of those mocks for 10 minutes… especially when at this point you can just wait for the real event.

2) I graded every mock by an average absolute difference between the mocked and actual picks
For example Bradley Beal was drafted third so if you had him at #2 you would get a score of “1″ but if you had him at #5 you would get a score of “2″. Got it? If a player went undrafted I counted that as a “30″ because of the entire second round. I did the aforementioned thing for every pick in every mock and calculate an average for the entire first round so the lower the number the more accurate mock was.

OK, let the mock draft challenge begin! Here are the results…

Author	Date	Link to the Source	Only Lottery	# of nailed picks	# of picks with 10+ difference	Average Error for 1st Round
David Kay	06/27	Redirecting to other version	2,00	8	2	3,60
Chad Ford	06/14	Downloaded from	2,64	4	2	3,60
draftexpress.com	06/28	Downloaded from	2,14	4	3	3,63
Scott Howard-Cooper	06/26	Downloaded from	2,14	4	2	3,70
myNBAdraft.com	06/26	Downloaded from	2,71	5	3	3,77
sportscity.com	06/26	Downloaded from	2,71	5	3	3,77
Sam Amick	06/20	Downloaded from	2,21	5	3	3,80
Jonathan Carrano	06/24	Downloaded from	2,14	6	2	3,83
Nicholas Schwartz	06/23	Downloaded from	2,64	5	3	3,83
DraftExpress	06/26	Downloaded from	2,14	5	3	3,87
Chad Ford	06/19	Redirecting to other version	2,14	3	2	3,93
nbadraftinsider.com	06/27	Downloaded from	2,36	7	5	4,00
Chad Ford	06/27	Redirecting to other version	2,29	4	2	4,03
Matt Moore	06/25	Downloaded from	2,21	4	3	4,10
Paul Flannery	06/26	Downloaded from	2,79	4	2	4,13
PARADIGMN13	06/26	Downloaded from	2,43	4	3	4,13
SB Nation’s NBA team bloggers	06/25	Downloaded from	3,93	3	3	4,13
midampub	06/26	Downloaded from	3,14	2	3	4,13
fantasycouch.com	06/26	Downloaded from	3,50	6	2	4,17
Cammo	06/26	Downloaded from	2,57	6	3	4,17
Chad Ford	06/25	Redirecting to other version	3,00	4	2	4,17
Chad Ford	06/22	Downloaded from	2,14	4	2	4,23
Chad Ford	06/28	Downloaded from	2,29	5	4	4,30
Cammo	06/25	Downloaded from	2,86	7	3	4,37
Steve Kyler	06/22	Downloaded from	2,79	7	6	4,40
Favachio	06/26	Downloaded from	2,79	6	6	4,40
Favachio	06/22	Downloaded from	2,00	4	4	4,47
LewisnotMiller	06/26	Downloaded from	2,00	6	2	4,50
Ryan McNeill	06/26	Downloaded from	3,00	5	5	4,50
Shivu Sharma	06/25	Downloaded from	2,29	4	3	4,50
Cammo	06/12	Downloaded from	2,79	3	4	4,50
myNBAdraft.com	06/20	Downloaded from	2,86	3	5	4,50
Paul Flannery	06/18	Downloaded from	4,36	2	4	4,50
Mike Wells	06/23	Downloaded from	2,14	5	4	4,53
Wes Sims	06/25	Downloaded from	2,36	2	5	4,53
nbadraftHQ	06/23	Downloaded from	3,36	5	4	4,60
USA TODAY	06/21	Downloaded from	2,14	3	3	4,60
Ryan McNeill	06/20	Downloaded from	3,00	4	6	4,63
nbadraftroom	06/23	Downloaded from	3,93	4	4	4,63
Jeff Lenchiner	06/24	Downloaded from	3,14	4	4	4,63
David Kay	06/21	Downloaded from	2,21	2	4	4,63
Paul Banks	06/21	Downloaded from	2,21	2	4	4,63
DraftExpress	06/21	Downloaded from	2,79	5	4	4,70
joekotoch	06/26	Downloaded from	2,29	5	3	4,70
probasketballdraft.com	06/26	Downloaded from	2,29	5	3	4,70
Joe Kotoch	06/26	Downloaded from	2,29	5	3	4,70
Daniel Trawick	06/27	Downloaded from	2,21	4	3	4,70
Steve Kyler	06/16	Downloaded from	3,79	3	6	4,70
Joe Kotoch	06/22	Downloaded from	2,36	4	3	4,73
Jeff Goodman	06/26	Downloaded from	1,36	8	6	4,77
nbadraft.net	06/27	Downloaded from	2,29	6	5	4,77
Scott Howard-Cooper	06/13	Downloaded from	2,93	5	4	4,77
Sebastian Hetman	06/27	Downloaded from	3,29	4	3	4,77
Marc Narducci	06/26	Downloaded from	3,57	3	5	4,77
Krapinsky	06/22	Downloaded from	3,79	7	3	4,80
Aran Smith	06/28	Downloaded from	2,29	6	6	4,80
Joel Brigham	06/22	Downloaded from	2,86	2	4	4,87
Tim T	06/25	Downloaded from	1,93	8	4	4,90
Kevin Roberts	06/13	Downloaded from	4,79	5	5	4,90
thehoopstuff.com	06/27	Downloaded from	1,93	6	4	4,93
nbadraft.net	06/24	Downloaded from	2,71	5	4	4,97
Dennis Velasco	06/26	Downloaded from	2,21	5	4	5,00
nbadraftroom	06/14	Downloaded from	3,86	5	7	5,03
Athlon Sports	06/27	Downloaded from	4,71	3	5	5,07
Yannis Koutroupis	06/22	Downloaded from	2,71	3	4	5,17
Chad Ford	05/31	Downloaded from	4,14	4	5	5,20
Alex Raskin	06/22	Downloaded from	3,86	4	5	5,23
nbadraft.net	06/21	Downloaded from	2,71	3	6	5,30
thehoopsreport.com	06/22	Downloaded from	4,21	3	6	5,30
Sean Deveney	06/14	Downloaded from	4,36	2	4	5,30
DraftExpress	06/09	Downloaded from	3,79	2	5	5,30
Joel Brigham	06/16	Downloaded from	4,57	4	5	5,33
Dan Levine	06/20	Downloaded from	4,07	4	8	5,33
Christopher Reina	06/21	Downloaded from	2,93	3	4	5,33
Avalanche	06/18	Downloaded from	4,43	2	4	5,37
Aran Smith	05/31	Downloaded from	3,86	5	5	5,40
Scott Howard-Cooper	05/31	Downloaded from	4,07	5	8	5,40
nbadraft.net	06/01	Downloaded from	3,86	3	5	5,40
Jonathan Carrano	05/31	Downloaded from	4,07	5	5	5,43
nbadraft.net	06/14	Downloaded from	3,36	2	4	5,43
dynastybasketball.net	06/25	Downloaded from	3,43	5	6	5,47
Daniel Trawick	06/23	Downloaded from	3,29	4	6	5,47
Jason McIntyre	06/19	Downloaded from	3,21	2	4	5,47
myNBAdraft.com	06/13	Downloaded from	4,21	3	8	5,57
CsBsSoxPhins	06/20	Downloaded from	3,79	3	5	5,57
Kevin Hanson	06/25	Downloaded from	3,07	2	8	5,60
nba-draft.com	06/01	Downloaded from	4,57	5	6	5,63
DeBlazerRiddem	06/25	Downloaded from	4,00	3	5	5,67
Yannis Koutroupis	06/16	Downloaded from	3,50	2	5	5,67
Alex Raskin	06/16	Downloaded from	3,50	2	8	5,67
nbadraftroom	06/02	Downloaded from	4,43	3	6	5,70
Matt Moore	06/20	Downloaded from	3,14	4	7	5,73
Sam Amick	05/31	Downloaded from	4,64	2	4	5,73
Sam Amick	06/13	Downloaded from	4,79	2	5	5,77
Alex Raskin	06/01	Downloaded from	4,79	1	4	5,77
Jeff Goodman	06/11	Downloaded from	4,21	4	7	5,80
drafttek.com	06/18	Downloaded from	4,79	3	6	5,80
Jeff Goodman	06/21	Downloaded from	4,50	4	7	5,93
Broderick Turner	06/23	Downloaded from	3,93	2	7	5,93
Matt Moore	05/30	Downloaded from	4,29	1	7	6,03
nbadraft.net consensus (1770 users)	06/27	Downloaded from	4,79	2	6	6,13
DraftExpress	06/01	Downloaded from	4,36	3	8	6,17
Daniel Trawick	06/12	Downloaded from	3,79	3	8	6,17
howardticker24	06/22	Downloaded from	4,79	2	8	6,17
David Kay	05/31	Downloaded from	5,00	4	7	6,20
Tab Bamford	06/26	Downloaded from	5,29	2	8	6,23
Cammo	05/30	Downloaded from	4,43	1	8	6,33
myNBAdraft.com	05/30	Downloaded from	4,64	3	9	6,37
Jeff Goodman	05/30	Downloaded from	4,64	2	9	6,47
Fischella	05/31	Downloaded from	4,29	5	7	6,53
Joel Brigham	06/01	Downloaded from	4,57	2	7	6,53
Yannis Koutroupis	06/01	Downloaded from	4,64	3	7	6,57
Bjorn Zetterberg	06/26	Downloaded from	4,14	3	10	6,70
Steve Kyler	06/01	Downloaded from	5,93	2	7	6,90
thehoopsreport.com	06/08	Downloaded from	5,07	2	6	6,97
hoopsworld.com	06/13	Downloaded from	3,86	2	6	7,00
draftsite.com	06/23	Downloaded from	4,57	3	7	7,07
draftsite.com	06/14	Downloaded from	4,93	1	7	7,27
draftsite.com	06/27	Downloaded from	4,07	2	7	7,30
Sean Deveney	05/31	Downloaded from	5,00	1	6	7,43
teamjosh04	06/13	Downloaded from	5,79	1	10	7,57
Carl Berman	06/12	Downloaded from	5,79	1	11	7,57

Is this unbelievable or what? The same guy – David Kay – had the most accurate mock 2 years in a row??? I mean seriously, what’s going on here?? Have I made mistake?
Was I bribed and I don’t know anything about it??? ;-)

What makes this situation even more strange is that the page with “winning” mock doesn’t exist anymore and I have no idea why… so here’s a saved file [please rename the extension to ".html", I edited background to white because it was black and unreadable in a raw form].

You could argue a first place for Chad Ford because of the tie in average error and an earlier date… but he had a lot of later versions – which were worse – which IMHO hurt his cause and he would have to settle for the second place if it were up to me. Not that’s a bad thing ;-)

Third place would be some kind of tie between Scott Howard-Cooper, myNBAdraft.com, sportscity.com, Sam Amick and draftexpress.com.

Congratulations to all winners and to all of us for the great coverage of NBA Draft 2012!

Some more notes about this set of mocks:

Unsurprisingly they improved over the time. On average error looked like this…
06/25 – 06/28 = 4,68
06/15 – 06/24 = 5
05/30 – 06/14 = 5,94

Earlier versions were even worse mostly because they included players who stayed in college.

Surprisingly even though there are many possible combinations there were TWO instances were mocks were identical. I don’t want to excuse anybody of copy and paste because it’s hardly a damning evidence so I’ll just assume that some authors publish on different sites at the same time.

Everybody had Anthony Davis at #1 but nobody had a 1st round mock with Jeremy Lamb at #12 or Evan Fournier at #20 or Jared Cunningham at #24 or Arnett Moultrie at #27 or Perry Jones at #28.
Jared Cunningham appeared only in 3 mocks!

Also I think it’s worth noting that Tim T from thetruefansports was the only one with Dion Waiters at #4, another blogger – Jonathan Carrano from sportsbyblayze – was the only one to nail Terrence Ross at #8 and Jeff Lenchiner from insidehoops.com was the exception with John Jenkins at #23.

I’ll check your NBA mocks next year!