NBA 2011-12, Revisiting Predictions for Wins

After checking accuracy of predictions for wins in the NBA in 2010/11 and two earlier seasons I’m hungry for more and thanks to passing time I can add most recent data! Farewell 2011/12! So which writer, blogger or author had the most accurate wins predictions for that lockout-shortened season?

To answer this question I gathered last season’s predictions from most popular sites and other googled sources [btw, it's not a closed list so if you want to add your's predictions let me know in the comments] and compared them to actual results by Root Mean Square Deviation which is essentially average difference between each prediction and result in terms of absolute value. If you want to play with numbers or check any single entry just download NBA Predictions Accuracy 2011-12.pdf but if you are interested only in the results here they are…

Prediction	Date	Data from	RMSE
Joe Schaller	12/22/2011	http://high5.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1310155	4,595
Crow	12/25/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10262#p10262	4,683
Over/Under Line	12/25/2011	http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-win-[...]	4,773
John Hollinger	12/25/2011	http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-win-[...]	4,789
Coach	12/15/2011	http://bikinihill.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-regular-season[...]	4,906
ESPN’s forecast	12/27/2011	http://espn.go.com/nba/[...]/nba-winter-forecast-contributors	5,007
Pinnacle Over/Under	12/20/2011	http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/view/?name=NBA-Gambling-Odds[...]	5,018
J.E.	12/24/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10249#p10249	5,198
dudeimstoked	12/24/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10247#p10247	5,518
DSMok1	12/25/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10257#p10257	5,584
Bill Simmons Real	12/21/2011	http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045	5,607
MikeG final	12/25/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10258#p10258	5,627
Bill Simmons Pin	12/21/2011	http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045	5,680
House Real	12/21/2011	http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045	5,683
House Close to Pin	12/21/2011	http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045	5,710
EvanZ final	12/25/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10267#p10267	5,842
EvanZ	12/23/2011	http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2011/12/23/[...]/evanzs-2012-[...]	5,939
EvanZ corrected blended	12/21/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10207#p10207	5,939
Darryl Howerton	12/27/2011	http://www.nba.com/hoop/the_hoopmag_201112_nba_previe[...]	5,964
MikeG 2nd pass	12/17/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10158#p10158	6,017
EvanZ 2-yr ezPM	12/20/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10186#p10186	6,019
EvanZ ezPM blended with RAPM	12/20/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10186#p10186	6,126
Kurt Helin	12/15/2011	http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/15/[...]	6,340
Cole	12/08/2011	http://tshq.co/2011/12/2011-2011-nba-season-win-totals-predictions/	6,438
David Hess	12/23/2011	http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nba/2011-12-nba-preseason-proj[...]	6,560
Bryan	12/08/2011	http://tshq.co/2011/12/2011-2011-nba-season-win-totals-predictions/	6,637
K. M. Venne	12/08/2011	http://tshq.co/2011/12/2011-2011-nba-season-win-totals-predictions/	6,712
Kevin Pelton Book	12/25/2011	http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-win-[...]	6,790
Kevin Pelton Semi-Final Projections	12/23/2011	http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1974	6,839
MikeG 1st pass	12/14/2011	http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10112#p10112	6,875
Wins in previous season	-	http://www.dougstats.com/10-11.html	7,469

A couple of notes about results in the 4th season measured:

- The list of competitors is surprisingly short, I blame it on the lockout and lack of preparation time because of the sudden start… but if the next year list is also short I’ll be concerned.

- The most undervalued teams were Spurs [by avg of 9,8 wins], Jazz [7,7], Pacers [7] and Hawks [5,3].

- The most overvalued teams were Bobcats [by avg of 14,36], Blazers [9,43], Mavs [6,45], Warriors [4,53] and Hornets [4,1].

- Previous year’s winner – John Hollinger – didn’t beat Vegas this time but was close and had another top performance which makes it 3 out of 4… so the pressure is only going up for the next year, John ;-)

- APBR’s staple Crow had a spectacular set of predictions and was crowned the winner on that forum but I found even better entry so…

- I’d like to congratulate Joe Schaller for the most accurate wins predictions last year!
By the way, he is aware of this accomplishment but his previous season wasn’t so accurate so we’ll see after next season whenever it was a contract year for his publisher ;-)

- It’s a 3rd strong year in a row for ESPN’s winter forecast so “yay” for the wisdom of the crowd.

- Most early submissions had a poor final score… so yes, the more you know about the teams, the easier it is to predict their strength. The more you know… ;-)

Finally, I’m glad that a quest for measuring accuracy of predictions is expanding – good luck pundittracker!

P.S. On my queue for next couple of days? Accuracy of 2012 Mock Drafts!