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NBA 2011-12, Revisiting Predictions for Wins

27 Jun

After checking accuracy of predictions for wins in the NBA in 2010/11 and two earlier seasons I’m hungry for more and thanks to passing time I can add most recent data! Farewell 2011/12! So which writer, blogger or author had the most accurate wins predictions for that lockout-shortened season?

To answer this question I gathered last season’s predictions from most popular sites and other googled sources [btw, it's not a closed list so if you want to add your's predictions let me know in the comments] and compared them to actual results by Root Mean Square Deviation which is essentially average difference between each prediction and result in terms of absolute value. If you want to play with numbers or check any single entry just download NBA Predictions Accuracy 2011-12.pdf but if you are interested only in the results here they are…

Prediction Date Data from RMSE
Joe Schaller 12/22/2011 http://high5.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1310155 4,595
Crow 12/25/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10262#p10262 4,683
Over/Under Line 12/25/2011 http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-win-[...] 4,773
John Hollinger 12/25/2011 http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-win-[...] 4,789
Coach 12/15/2011 http://bikinihill.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-regular-season[...] 4,906
ESPN’s forecast 12/27/2011 http://espn.go.com/nba/[...]/nba-winter-forecast-contributors 5,007
Pinnacle Over/Under 12/20/2011 http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/view/?name=NBA-Gambling-Odds[...] 5,018
J.E. 12/24/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10249#p10249 5,198
dudeimstoked 12/24/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10247#p10247 5,518
DSMok1 12/25/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10257#p10257 5,584
Bill Simmons Real 12/21/2011 http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045 5,607
MikeG final 12/25/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10258#p10258 5,627
Bill Simmons Pin 12/21/2011 http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045 5,680
House Real 12/21/2011 http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045 5,683
House Close to Pin 12/21/2011 http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045 5,710
EvanZ final 12/25/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10267#p10267 5,842
EvanZ 12/23/2011 http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2011/12/23/[...]/evanzs-2012-[...] 5,939
EvanZ corrected blended 12/21/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10207#p10207 5,939
Darryl Howerton 12/27/2011 http://www.nba.com/hoop/the_hoopmag_201112_nba_previe[...] 5,964
MikeG 2nd pass 12/17/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10158#p10158 6,017
EvanZ 2-yr ezPM 12/20/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10186#p10186 6,019
EvanZ ezPM blended with RAPM 12/20/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10186#p10186 6,126
Kurt Helin 12/15/2011 http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/15/[...] 6,340
Cole 12/08/2011 http://tshq.co/2011/12/2011-2011-nba-season-win-totals-predictions/ 6,438
David Hess 12/23/2011 http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nba/2011-12-nba-preseason-proj[...] 6,560
Bryan 12/08/2011 http://tshq.co/2011/12/2011-2011-nba-season-win-totals-predictions/ 6,637
K. M. Venne 12/08/2011 http://tshq.co/2011/12/2011-2011-nba-season-win-totals-predictions/ 6,712
Kevin Pelton Book 12/25/2011 http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/2011-12-nba-win-[...] 6,790
Kevin Pelton Semi-Final Projections 12/23/2011 http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1974 6,839
MikeG 1st pass 12/14/2011 http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?p=10112#p10112 6,875
Wins in previous season - http://www.dougstats.com/10-11.html 7,469

A couple of notes about results in the 4th season measured:

- The list of competitors is surprisingly short, I blame it on the lockout and lack of preparation time because of the sudden start… but if the next year list is also short I’ll be concerned.

- The most undervalued teams were Spurs [by avg of 9,8 wins], Jazz [7,7], Pacers [7] and Hawks [5,3].

- The most overvalued teams were Bobcats [by avg of 14,36], Blazers [9,43], Mavs [6,45], Warriors [4,53] and Hornets [4,1].

- Previous year’s winner – John Hollinger – didn’t beat Vegas this time but was close and had another top performance which makes it 3 out of 4… so the pressure is only going up for the next year, John ;-)

- APBR’s staple Crow had a spectacular set of predictions and was crowned the winner on that forum but I found even better entry so…

- I’d like to congratulate Joe Schaller for the most accurate wins predictions last year!
By the way, he is aware of this accomplishment but his previous season wasn’t so accurate so we’ll see after next season whenever it was a contract year for his publisher ;-)

- It’s a 3rd strong year in a row for ESPN’s winter forecast so “yay” for the wisdom of the crowd.

- Most early submissions had a poor final score… so yes, the more you know about the teams, the easier it is to predict their strength. The more you know… ;-)

Finally, I’m glad that a quest for measuring accuracy of predictions is expanding – good luck pundittracker!

P.S. On my queue for next couple of days? Accuracy of 2012 Mock Drafts!

 
2 Comments

Posted by on June 27, 2012 in Expanding Horizons

 

Tags: , , , , ,

2 responses to “NBA 2011-12, Revisiting Predictions for Wins

  1. Anonymous

    September 2, 2012 at 03:44

    Thanks guys…. I just stumbled across this… Looking to defend my title…. Joe Schaller

     

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