Review Why Top NBA Stars Left Their Teams

Have you heard recently about Top NBA Stars which left their hard-working and poor teams?
OK, that was a joke, if you follow NBA in any capacity you couldn’t have missed that memo ;-)
But there was always one thing which bothered me about this topic: reason for their actions.
Was it big market glamour? Was it a chase for fame or rings? Was it money/greed? Is it some kind of a trend? A lot of articles were written about this so I finally sat down and spent far too many hours to figure out why… but I think I found an satisfying answer [at least for me].

There were some rules for this exercise, thanks to prosportstransactions.com I reviewed every team’s move from the time franchise player was drafted or signed huge extension to the dreaded day given star was out with following assumptions:

• All decisions are in a chronological order,
• I included every contract worth more than 5 million dollars [total],
• I ignored every minimum contracts and all other small ones unless they were important in some way,
• I included every significant trade – meaning either good or expensive players were involved,
• I ignored every trade with marginal assets involved like 2nd round draft pick for future 2nd rounder or bench guy for bench guy with low salaries etc unless they were important in some way,
• I tried very hard NOT to use hindsight in my judgements but obviously in some cases [especially with rookies and injuries] it was inevitable,
• Obviously some if not all grades are subjective and probably arguable but I doubt you can move them up or down significantly,
• I measured predictability of each outcome in a very simple way: “what if said GM had used advanced boxscore statistics like Win Shares, PER, Wins Produced to support his decisions?”,
• It was a quite long list so if I missed anything important please let me know in the comments,
• If you are not interested in gory details, just scroll down to the end of this post for conclusions.

Let’s start with a case which not only couldn’t be more clearer but also had some impact on others…

Move, Decision, Trade	Verdict	Predictable?	Notes
Kevin Garnett resigned for 5yrs	-	-	-
Trenton Hassell resigned for 6yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	never above avg, 6 yrs?!
Troy Hudson resigned for 6yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	once above avg by PER, 6 yrs?!
Rashad McCants drafted at #14	FAIL	YES	Old and Inefficient scorer in college
Mark Madsen resigned for 5yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Not productive in limited minutes, 5 yrs?!
Marko Jaric, Lionel Chalmers acquired for Sam Cassell, first round pick (protected top 10 through 2011, unprotected in 2012)	Huge FAIL	MAYBE	Jaric way younger, Cassell wanted out? Pick became top asset
Ricky Davis, Marcus Banks, Mark Blount acquired for Wally Szczerbiak, Michael Olowokandi, Dwayne Jones, first round pick (2009 #6)	FAIL	NO	Toss up with players, pick delayed and became top asset
rights to Randy Foye acquired for rights to Brandon Roy	Huge FAIL	YES	Roy 1 yr older but way more productive in college
Mike James signed for 4yrs	Huge FAIL	MAYBE	Had couple above avg seasons but signed at 31
Juwan Howard acquired for Mike James	WIN	MAYBE	Dumped bad contract for expiring
Corey Brewer drafted at #7	FAIL	MAYBE	Avg in college though with defender rep
Kevin Garnett traded to Celtics	-	-	-

As far as I remember NOBODY blamed Garnett for his desire to leave Timberwolves and it most certainly wasn’t because of a market size or money – if GM’s best move in 4 years is a salary dump of contract which he has signed… well, you can only feel sorry for the player and ask 100 times per day WHY MCHALE WAS A GM FOR SO LONG?!?!?!

Next case…

Move, Decision, Trade	Verdict	Predictable?	Notes
LeBron James drafted at #1	-	-	-
Ira Newble signed for 5yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	never above avg, 5 yrs?!
Kevin Ollie signed for 5yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	never above avg, 5 yrs?!
Eric Williams, Tony Battie, Kedrick Brown acquired for Ricky Davis, Chris Mihm, Michael Stewart	WASH	MAYBE	Dumped Ricky Davis’ contract a year after he was signed
Sasha Pavlovic acquired for protected pick	FAIL	MAYBE	At his best Sasha was below avg, pick ended up being #22 and Dudley
Luke Jackson drafted at #10	Huge FAIL	YES	Old, bad, out of the league in 3 years
Carlos Boozer team declined to exercise contract option for 2004-05, making player a restricted free agent – lost restricted free agent (did not match offer sheet from Jazz)	Huge FAIL	MAYBE	Allegedly Boozer’s fault but they declined an option
Eric Snow acquired for Kevin Ollie, Kedrick Brown	WASH	MAYBE	Snow had some above avg seasons in the past but acquired at 31 and overpaid
Drew Gooden, Steven Hunter, rights to Anderson Varejao acquired for Tony Battie, picks	Huge WIN	MAYBE	Gooden and Varejao better and cheaper than Battie
Jiri Welsch acquired for pick	Huge FAIL	YES	Welsh was bad and quickly out of the league, pick turned out to be #24 and Rudy Fernandez
Dan Gilbert bought a team	-	-	-
Zydrunas Ilgauskas resigned for 5yrs	WASH	MAYBE	Big Z had above avg seasons but he earned over 11M$/y
Donyell Marshall resigned for 4yrs	FAIL	MAYBE	2 avg-ish seasons, 2 below, productive past but signed at 32
Larry Hughes resigned for 5yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Rewarded for a career year, never above avg after that
Damon Jones signed for 4yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Rewarded for a career year, never above avg after that
Daniel Gibson drafted at #42	WIN	NO	Rotation player in 2nd round
LeBron James resigned for 3yrs	-	-	-
Gooden resigned for 3yrs	WIN	YES	Productivity at or above his salary
Sasha Pavlovic resigned for 3yrs	FAIL	YES	below avg with avg salary though he was young
Anderson Varejao resigned for 3yrs	WIN	YES	Productivity at or above his salary
Ben Wallace & Delonte West acquired for Hughes & Gooden	WASH	MAYBE	Bad contract for bad contract, solid player for solid player
J.J. Hickson drafted at #19	WIN	MAYBE	Solid & cheap rotation player
Daniel Gibson resigned for 5yrs	FAIL	YES	solid young rotation player, too long & expensive
Mo Williams acquired for Damon Jones, Joe Smith	WIN	YES	Mo was the best player but he was a salary dump for other team
Delonte West resigned for 2yrs	WASH	MAYBE	Solid player for solid salary, missed games though
Christian Eyenga drafted at #30	FAIL*	MAYBE	* at least so far
Shaq acquired for Ben Wallace	WASH	YES	Win in talent, loss in payroll
Anderson Varejao resigned for 6yrs	WIN*	YES	* at least so far
Anthony Parker signed for 2yrs	WIN	YES	Productivity at or above his salary
Jamison acquired for BigZ	FAIL	NO	Productive but expensive and old
LeBron James traded to Heat	-	-	-

By my count during LeBron’s career in Cavs uniform they had more Huge FAILs than WINs…
with overall batting average for their decisions around 0.300.
What’s more shocking is how predictable those huge fails were and how many wins were basically about one player – Varejao. Interesting question is… when LeBron had decided to leave?
My guess would be “Ben Wallace for Hughes trade” which started a spiral of short-term moves which downgraded long-term picture.

If you are reading this by now you probably know where am I going with this but to complete this journey…

Move, Decision, Trade	Verdict	Predictable?	Notes
Chris Bosh drafted at #4	-	-	-
Jalen Rose, Donyell Marshall acquired for Antonio Davis, Jerome Williams, Chris Jefferies	Huge FAIL	YES	Acquired players were old, worse and more expensive
Rafael Araujo drafted at #8	Huge FAIL	MAYBE	Productive in college but old when drafted
Morris Peterson resigned for 3yrs	WASH	YES	Average player for 5M$/y
Alonzo Mourning, Eric Williams, Aaron Williams, #16, #20 acquired for Vince Carter	Huge FAIL	YES	Vince wanted to be traded so Raptors didn’t have any leverage
Joey Graham drafted at #16	FAIL	YES	Rotation player for a few years then out of the league
Charlie Villanueva drafted at #7	WASH	NO	Rotation player, quickly traded
Jose Calderon signed for 3yrs	WIN	MAYBE	Productivity at or above his salary
Mike James acquired for Rafer Alston	WASH	YES	Swap of old and bad veterans
Antonio Davis acquired for Jalen Rose, 2006 first round pick	WASH	YES	Basically a salary dump paid with a draft pick
Kris Humphries acquired for Rafael Araujo	WIN	YES	Productive but… in very limited minutes
Rasho Nesterovic acquired for Matt Bonner	WASH	YES	Solid veteran for solid veteran
Andrea Bargnani drafted at #1	Huge FAIL	NO	So far expensive and unproductive
T.J. Ford acquired for Charlie Villanueva	WASH	MAYBE	Win in terms of talent but created a strange mix at PG
Jorge Garbajosa signed for 3yrs	FAIL	MAYBE	Only one solid season, out after that
Anthony Parker signed for 3yrs	WIN	MAYBE	Productivity at or above his salary
Chris Bosh resigned for 3yrs	-	-	-
Fred Jones signed for 3yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Rewarded for a career year, never above avg after that, quickly traded
T.J. Ford resigned for 4yrs	FAIL	YES	Salary higher than his production, traded after 2yrs
Carlos Delfino acquired for 2 second-rounders	WIN	YES	Productivity at or above his salary
Jamario Moon signed for 2yrs	WIN	NO	Productivity at or above his salary plus feel good story
Jason Kapono signed for 4yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Rewarded for a career year, never above avg after that
Kris Humphries resigned for 3yrs	WASH	YES	Productive but… in very limited minutes
Jermaine O’Neal acquired for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic	WASH	YES	Swap of overpaid players
Jose Calderon resigned for 5yrs	WASH	MAYBE	Started as a huge win, became underused, injury-prone with too much focus on his weaknesses
Shawn Marion acquired for Jermaine O’Neal, Jamario Moon	WASH	MAYBE	Swap of overpaid players
Reggie Evans acquired for Jason Kapono	Huge WIN	YES	Way more productive player and better fit for same salary
Andrea Bargnani resigned for 5yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	So far expensive and unproductive
DeMar DeRozan drafted at #9	FAIL	YES	Two weak seasons though still young so he can improve
Hedo Turkoglu acquired for Shawn Marion, Kris Humphries & signed for 5 yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Just a spectacular fail talent-wise and financially
Jarrett Jack signed for 4yrs	Huge FAIL	MAYBE	Avg player with avg salary but a) they didn’t need him, b) “Bosh’s friend”, c) quickly traded
Marco Belinelli acquired for Devean George	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive role-players
Amir Johnson acquired for Carlos Delfino	WIN*	YES	* at least so far, too late for Bosh though and in his place
Ed Davis drafted at #13	WIN*	YES	* at least so far, too late for Bosh though and in his place
Amir Johnson signed for 5yrs	WIN*	YES	* at least so far, too late for Bosh though and in his place
Chris Bosh traded to Heat	-	-	-

Again more Huge FAILs than WINs for an overall batting average around 0.272.
Raptors are an interesting case because on one hand they found a way to add productive and cheap foreign players to their roster but on the other hand that fetish led them to Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani which signed for over 100 millions dollars and would be my best guess on why Bosh left.
Ironically the best moves in that period were as a replacement for Bosh ;-)

Here’s the latest victim…

Move, Decision, Trade	Verdict	Predictable?	Notes
Chris Paul drafted at #4	-	-	-
Brandon Bass drafted at #33	WASH	NO	Future rotation player in 2nd round [win] but on a different team as a UFA [fail]
Desmond Mason, #15 in 2006 acquired for Jamaal Magloire	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive role-players
Marc Jackson, Linton Johnson III acquired for Bostjan Nachbar	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive role-players
Cedric Simmons drafted at #15	FAIL	YES	Quickly out of the league
Hilton Armstrong drafted at #12	Huge FAIL	YES	Old, unproductive in college, played few minutes and was bad in them
Peja Stojakovic signed for 5yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	28-yrs old scorer on the downside for 65M$/5y? He was really good in Sac but really?
Tyson Chandler acquired for P.J. Brown, J.R. Smith	WIN	MAYBE	Small for big & need but JR Smith also benefited from change of team and played well
Rasual Butler resigned for 4yrs	FAIL	YES	Cheap but bad, 4yrs?!
David West resigned for 5yrs	WIN	MAYBE	Productivity close to his salary
Julian Wright drafted at #13	FAIL	NO	Promising 1st season, limited minutes
Morris Peterson signed for 4yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Bad & outside of rotation after 1st season, 4 yrs?!
Bonzi Wells, Mike James acquired for Bobby Jackson	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive veterans
Darrell Arthur drafted at #27 & traded for cash	WASH	NO	Future rotation player late in draft [win] but on a different team for cash [fail]
James Posey signed for 4yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	32 yrs old when signed, rewarded for a championship presence on Celtics? 4 yrs?!
Chris Paul resigned for 3yrs	-	-	-
Antonio Daniels acquired for Mike James	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive veterans
Darren Collison drafted at #21	WIN	NO	Good & cheap backup
rights to Marcus Thornton acquired for 2 future 2nd rounders	WIN	NO	Good & cheap backup
Emeka Okafor acquired for Tyson Chandler	WASH	YES	Similiar talent, worse contract vs worse injury history
Darius Songaila, Bobby Brown acquired for Antonio Daniels, 2014 second round pick	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive veterans
#11 traded to dump salary	Huge FAIL	YES	Literally gave away asset to erase old mistake
Marco Belinelli acquired for Julian Wright	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive youngsters
Trevor Ariza acquired for Darren Collison, James Posey	FAIL	YES	Gave away asset to erase old mistake, Ariza useful but overpaid
Willie Green, Jason Smith acquired for Craig Brackins, Darius Songaila	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive veterans
Jerryd Bayless acquired for #19 in 2011	WIN	MAYBE	Promising known youngster for unknown youngster
David Andersen, Marcus Banks, Jarrett Jack acquired for Jerryd Bayless, Peja Stojakovic	FAIL	YES	Older & more expensive backup PG with junk to erase old mistake
Carl Landry acquired for Marcus Thornton	WASH	YES	Swap of productive youngsters who got paid next offseason
Chris Paul traded to Clippers	-	-	-

By my count their batting average for significant roster decisions was at a whooping 0.192!
IMHO their love for old and overpriced spot-up shooters killed their chances to resign Paul.

Finally, a very good candidate for a future move…

Move, Decision, Trade	Verdict	Predictable?	Notes
Dwight Howard drafted at #1	-	-	-
rights to Jameer Nelson acquired for future late 1st rounder	Huge WIN	MAYBE	avg starter at #20
Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Kelvin Cato acquired for Tracy McGrady, Tyronn Lue, Reece Gaines, Juwan Howard	Huge FAIL	YES	TMac the best player – demanded a trade? – swapped for 2 avg-ish & expensive
Tony Battie acquired for Drew Gooden, Steven Hunter, rights to Anderson Varejao	Huge FAIL	YES	Two good youngsters for “proven veteran”
Hedo Turkoglu signed for 6yrs	WIN	MAYBE	Productivity at or above his salary
Doug Christie acquired for Cuttino Mobley	WASH	YES	Swap of unproductive role-players
Fran Vazquez drafted at #11	Huge FAIL	MAYBE	Still in Spain
rights to Marcin Gortat acquired for cash considerations	Huge WIN	NO	In hindsight amazing steal
Keyon Dooling signed for 3yrs	FAIL	YES	Cheap but unproductive
Darko Milicic, Carlos Arroyo acquired for Kelvin Cato, #15 pick in 2007	FAIL	YES	Wash in talent, surprisingly pick became top asset involved
Trevor Ariza, Penny Hardaway acquired for Steve Francis	Huge WIN	MAYBE	Salary dump which netted them solid youngster
J.J. Redick drafted at #11	WASH	MAYBE	Solid & cheap rotation player
Rashard Lewis acquired for 2nd rounder & signed for 6yrs	Huge FAIL	YES	Never at level of his salary before and after, way too long contract
Dwight Howard resigned for 5yrs	-	-	-
Jameer Nelson resigned for 5yrs	FAIL	YES	average player with limitations od D on rookie deal is a win, for 8-9M$/y it’s a fail
Brian Cook, Maurice Evans acquired for Trevor Ariza	Huge FAIL	YES	Cook, Evans were better fit because of shooting but Ariza far better player
Courtney Lee drafted at #22	WIN	MAYBE	Solid & cheap rotation player
Mickael Pietrus signed for 4yrs	FAIL	YES	Roller-coaster in previous team and with Magic
Rafer Alston acquired for Brian Cook, Adonal Foyle, 2009 late first round pick	WASH	YES	Win in terms of short-tem talent, loss in payroll and future assets
Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson acquired for Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, Courtney Lee	WIN	YES	Vince dissapointed but still better than players traded, Ryan more than a throw-in
Brandon Bass signed for 4yrs	WASH	YES	Avg Player for avg salary, contract probably too long
Marcin Gortat resigned for 5yrs	WIN	YES	There were right to match his offer
Chris Duhon signed for 4yrs	FAIL	NO	Solid history but productivity crashed after he joined Magic, 4yrs for a backup?
Quentin Richardson signed for 4yrs	WASH	MAYBE	Solid history and cheap but contract simply too long
J.J. Redick resigned for 3yrs	FAIL	YES	average player with limitations od D on rookie deal is a win, for 7-8M$/y + tax it’s a fail
Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu acquired for Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus, Marcin Gortat	Huge FAIL	YES	Spectacular fail on many levels
Dwight Howard requested a trade	-	-	-

By my count batting average around 0.291. BTW, without any hesitation I could have added Glen Davis’ contract as a Huge FAIL though this time in my opinion terrible trades will be to blame…

To sum up this topic, here’s a cheat sheet
“what GM shouldn’t do to loose his franchise player”:

1) Never, ever, under any circumstances offer a contract with 4 or more years in it to an average-ish role-player – if he is also old just threw that money out of the window so at least your salary cap will be in a better shape,

2) Don’t draft players without any upside who weren’t good in college – if they are also old, just trade this pick for a future pick or a cash,

3) Don’t make moves to keep franchise player, do them only to improve team!

3a) Don’t make trades just to make trades, they doesn’t help but often they just waste space in your payroll,

4) For the love of the fans or your job, please at least check a couple advanced stats for veteran players before making an offer – seriously, only few seconds on wagesofwins.com, basketball-reference.com or many others will help you avoiding many, many mistakes.

Simple, right? And to answer the most fundamental question…

TOP NBA STARS LEAVE BECAUSE OF AN INCOMPETENT MANAGEMENT!

To bring this point home I wrote about Franchise Players who Stayed with their original NBA Team.

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