In my second piece about incentives to lose in the NBA I’ll focus mainly on extremes. Because even though it is a well known strategy I don’t think there is any research on… pointing fingers to actual offenders!
In other words, are there teams which tank more often than others?
Or is it simply year-by-year case-by-case strategy?
The data, timeframe and [simple] methodology used is exactly the same as in my previous post about tanking so I won’t repeat myself here and I’ll go straight into IMHO interesting curiosity…
| # Worst Record | Total Difference | Biggest Minus | By Team | During Season |
| 1 | 6 | -9 | Blazers | 2005-06 |
| 2 | -19 | -9 | Warriors | 2000-01 |
| 3 | -14 | -6 | Bucks | 2006-07 |
| 4 | -12 | -10 | Nuggets | 1991-92 |
| 5 | -32 | -8 | Clippers | 2003-04 |
| 6 | -10 | -9 | Sixers | 1993-94 |
| 7 | -35 | -10 | Cavs | 2000-01 |
| 8 | -3 | -9 | Clippers | 2009-10 |
| 9 | -7 | -10 | Lakers | 2004-05 |
| 10 | 29 | -7 | Bucks | 1996-97 |
| 11 | -7 | -4 | Nets | 2008-09 |
Conventional wisdom, and frankly my assumption before this project, was that teams tank mostly for the worst record in the league but according to this measure it’s not true. Worst record usually belongs to either actually really bad team or one which started tanking very early so other teams can’t catch it… and the real tank-fest goes on between 2nd worst and 7th worst team each year.
When you check example of odds for Top3 pick it makes a lot of sense. First of all, there are a lot of ties in that range and second of all, team can almost double it’s odds for Top3 by moving up just one spot!
OK, and into the main point of this post [Warning! Some long tables ahead!]:
| Team | Times in Bottom10 |
Total Difference | - | Team | Times in Bottom10 |
Total Difference |
| Bucks | 12 | -42 | - | Heat | 6 | 18 |
| Clippers | 13 | -27 | - | Hornets | 3 | 13 |
| Wolves | 12 | -17 | - | Mavs | 8 | 12 |
| Knicks | 8 | -16 | - | Magic | 3 | 11 |
| Blazers | 3 | -14 | - | Bobcats | 5 | 9 |
| Wizards | 12 | -14 | - | Rockets | 3 | 8 |
| Sixers | 9 | -13 | - | Bulls | 6 | 7 |
| Raptors | 9 | -9 | - | Hawks | 9 | 6 |
| Kings | 9 | -7 | - | Pacers | 1 | 4 |
| Suns | 2 | -7 | - | OKC | 5 | 4 |
| Grizzlies | 10 | -6 | - | Pistons | 6 | 3 |
| Nuggets | 9 | -6 | - | Celtics | 8 | -2 |
| Lakers | 2 | -5 | - | Jazz | 1 | -2 |
| Warriors | 12 | -4 | - | Spurs | 1 | -2 |
| Cavs | 5 | -3 | - | Nets | 10 | -3 |
Heat, Hornets, Mavs, Magic went in the opposite direction while Bucks, Clippers, Wolves, Knicks, Blazers, Wizards and Sixers seem like suspects to me. But you shouldn’t accuse anybody without any evidence so…
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Bucks | 2010-11 | 16 | 19 | 35 | 3 | |
| Bucks | 2008-09 | 19 | 15 | 34 | -4 | |
| Bucks | 2007-08 | 16 | 10 | 26 | -6 | series of strange injuries to Redd, Bogut i Mo Williams, IMHO they tanked |
| Bucks | 2006-07 | 17 | 11 | 28 | -6 | series of strange injuries to Redd, Bogut i Mo Williams, IMHO they tanked |
| Bucks | 2004-05 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 0 | |
| Bucks | 1997-98 | 19 | 17 | 36 | -2 | |
| Bucks | 1996-97 | 20 | 13 | 33 | -7 | Top7 played 78 games, had 2 small trades, they tanked? |
| Bucks | 1995-96 | 15 | 10 | 25 | -5 | Small trades and coach Mike Dunleavy Sr fired |
| Bucks | 1994-95 | 16 | 18 | 34 | 2 | |
| Bucks | 1993-94 | 12 | 8 | 20 | -4 | |
| Bucks | 1992-93 | 17 | 11 | 28 | -6 | Brickowski, starter at C, missed games in March and April, they tanked? |
| Bucks | 1991-92 | 19 | 12 | 31 | -7 | In the last 15 games they won only one, Humphries starter at PG missed some games |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Clippers | 2010-11 | 16 | 16 | 32 | 0 | |
| Clippers | 2009-10 | 19 | 10 | 29 | -9 | traded Camby for expiring contracts, changed coach, Gordon’s injury, IMHO they tanked |
| Clippers | 2008-09 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 1 | |
| Clippers | 2007-08 | 13 | 10 | 23 | -3 | |
| Clippers | 2003-04 | 18 | 10 | 28 | -8 | Jaric stopped playing in March and they won only 3 games the rest of way. Brand and Kaman played till the end so if they tanked they did it gently |
| Clippers | 2002-03 | 16 | 11 | 27 | -5 | Brand was injured but with a broken bone so seems legit |
| Clippers | 2000-01 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 5 | |
| Clippers | 1999-00 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -5 | starters Taylor i Anderson started missing games at the end, IMHO they tanked |
| Clippers | 1997-98 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -3 | |
| Clippers | 1995-96 | 16 | 13 | 29 | -3 | |
| Clippers | 1994-95 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 3 | |
| Clippers | 1993-94 | 15 | 12 | 27 | -3 | |
| Clippers | 1990-91 | 14 | 17 | 31 | 3 | |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Wolves | 2010-11 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -3 | |
| Wolves | 2009-10 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -1 | |
| Wolves | 2008-09 | 14 | 10 | 24 | -4 | |
| Wolves | 2007-08 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 8 | Foye came back and Telfair lost his job as a starter |
| Wolves | 2006-07 | 20 | 12 | 32 | -8 | Garnett and Jaric stopped playing in the end, youngsters got minutes, IMHO they tanked |
| Wolves | 2005-06 | 20 | 13 | 33 | -7 | Garnett and Ricky Davis missed last 6 games, youngsters got minutes, IMHO they tanked |
| Wolves | 1995-96 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 4 | |
| Wolves | 1994-95 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 1 | |
| Wolves | 1993-94 | 14 | 6 | 20 | -8 | Horrific February and March when their starter at PG missed some games |
| Wolves | 1992-93 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -1 | |
| Wolves | 1991-92 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 1 | |
| Wolves | 1990-91 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 1 | |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Knicks | 2009-10 | 17 | 12 | 29 | -5 | Cleared cap space with trades with Darko, TMac, Jordan Hill, didn’t have own pick! |
| Knicks | 2008-09 | 17 | 15 | 32 | -2 | |
| Knicks | 2007-08 | 13 | 10 | 23 | -3 | |
| Knicks | 2006-07 | 17 | 16 | 33 | -1 | |
| Knicks | 2005-06 | 14 | 9 | 23 | -5 | Marbury, Frye and QRich missed last month but they owed their pick to Bulls, was it Top1 protected? |
| Knicks | 2004-05 | 17 | 16 | 33 | -1 | |
| Knicks | 2002-03 | 17 | 20 | 37 | 3 | |
| Knicks | 2001-02 | 16 | 14 | 30 | -2 | |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Blazers | 2006-07 | 16 | 16 | 32 | 0 | |
| Blazers | 2005-06 | 15 | 6 | 21 | -9 | Zach missed some games but they had the worst record in the league |
| Blazers | 2004-05 | 16 | 11 | 27 | -5 | Ratliff and Zach ended season in March |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Bullets | 1994-95 | 11 | 10 | 21 | -1 | |
| Bullets | 1993-94 | 14 | 10 | 24 | -4 | |
| Bullets | 1992-93 | 12 | 10 | 22 | -2 | |
| Bullets | 1991-92 | 14 | 11 | 25 | -3 | |
| Bullets | 1990-91 | 18 | 12 | 30 | -6 | Bernard King played only 64 games |
| Wizards | 2010-11 | 12 | 11 | 23 | -1 | |
| Wizards | 2009-10 | 14 | 12 | 26 | -2 | |
| Wizards | 2008-09 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 1 | |
| Wizards | 2003-04 | 12 | 13 | 25 | 1 | |
| Wizards | 2002-03 | 21 | 16 | 37 | -5 | Jordan vs Hughes? |
| Wizards | 2000-01 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 5 | |
| Wizards | 1999-00 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 3 | |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Sixers | 2009-10 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 1 | |
| Sixers | 2003-04 | 18 | 15 | 33 | -3 | |
| Sixers | 1997-98 | 14 | 17 | 31 | 3 | |
| Sixers | 1996-97 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 4 | |
| Sixers | 1995-96 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 4 | |
| Sixers | 1994-95 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 0 | |
| Sixers | 1993-94 | 17 | 8 | 25 | -9 | Bradley ended season in the middle of February |
| Sixers | 1992-93 | 17 | 9 | 26 | -8 | Top 7 played 73+ games, in the 1st half had many overtimes |
| Sixers | 1991-92 | 20 | 15 | 35 | -5 | ??? I have no idea, starting five missed only 9 games total including 7 by Barkley but it was in December |
After all of this I would say that in the last 20 years Bucks, Clippers and Wolves are the worst offenders for the tanking. Other cases are kind of blurry to me.
And just for your information, details about teams which went in the opposite direction…
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Heat | 2007-08 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -1 | |
| Heat | 2002-03 | 14 | 11 | 25 | -3 | |
| Heat | 2001-02 | 14 | 22 | 36 | 8 | Jim Jackson came back in December |
| Heat | 1994-95 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 4 | |
| Heat | 1992-93 | 14 | 22 | 36 | 8 | Steve Smith started season in January |
| Heat | 1990-91 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 2 | |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Hornets | 2004-05 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 4 | |
| Hornets | 1991-92 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 9 | Newman, starter at SF, missed March and team played at .500 level then |
| Hornets | 1990-91 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 0 | |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Magic | 2003-04 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 1 | |
| Magic | 1991-92 | 11 | 10 | 21 | -1 | |
| Magic | 1990-91 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 11 | Nick Anderson got a chance in second half |
| Team | Season | Wins (1st half) |
Wins (2nd half) |
Total Wins |
Difference | My best guess about explanation for +/- 5 difference |
| Mavs | 1997-98 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 6 | Bradley and Strickland missed time in December when they won only 2 games |
| Mavs | 1996-97 | 14 | 10 | 24 | -4 | |
| Mavs | 1995-96 | 14 | 12 | 26 | -2 | |
| Mavs | 1994-95 | 16 | 20 | 36 | 4 | |
| Mavs | 1993-94 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 9 | Sean Rooks missed November |
| Mavs | 1992-93 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 5 | Jim Jackson played only in March and April |
| Mavs | 1991-92 | 13 | 9 | 22 | -4 | |
| Mavs | 1990-91 | 15 | 13 | 28 | -2 |
2 Responses to Which Teams are The Most Suspected for Tanking?