NBA Draft is days away so it’s time for some topics about it…
In part 1 I focused on a difference between players who were drafted at any given spot and those who would have been drafted there had lottery played out exactly as odds suggested. In part 2 I’ll take into consideration those odds. Incidentally I’ve stumbled into a solid way of quantifying how well teams have drafted!
But first, here’s a remainder of rules which were used:
– I assumed continuity of teams so “OKC Thunder” means “Seattle SuperSonics” in earlier years,
– I included new ownership of picks via trades only when they were completed before making a pick,
– I assumed that Career Win Shares in regular season adequately describe player’s career,
– I assumed that players would be drafted at the same slot no matter which team have owned given pick.
What’s more, I changed perspective to the Last 10 Years because IMHO drafts from 1995 to 2000 had too big impact on numbers because careers of those players have lasted way longer than any other. For every season in last decade I re-created probabilities of getting every pick before draft [this is an example from 2010]:
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Weak Side Awareness 